Chapter 2. Kyoto Protocol

“The first phase of Kyoto, the only international binding treaty on emissions cuts,

has failed to slow global carbon emissions”

(“The Guardian” Magazine,2012)

The big problem with the Kyoto protocol was that it covered a fraction of global emissions because it only applied to a group of industrialised countries, and did not include big emitters like the US and China.

The second commitment period is likely to be worse in that regard, as several countries have dropped out.

There is one improvement, however. Countries will be encouraged to review their emissions targets over the next few years, but will not be allowed to weaken targets, only to strengthen them. If a country decides it wants to make deeper cuts, it will be easier than before for this to be approved.

Under the existing system, a country needs to get any changes to its targets ratified by 75 per cent of the signatories to the protocol. In effect, countries need to seek permission to cut their emissions. This bizarre situation will be fixed.[17]

Nevertheless, the limited scale of the Kyoto protocol means that, by itself, it cannot prevent dangerous climate change. Even if the signatories adopt and stick to strict emissions targets, emissions from countries that have not signed up will mean greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere keep rising. So its value is partly symbolic, to show that binding agreements can be reached, and as one of many small and medium-scale projects to cut emissions.[18]

The progress made under Kyoto looks extremely poor, with Europe's savings reduced to just 1% from 1990 to 2008 and the developed world as a whole seeing its emissions rise by 7% in the same period.[19]

The Kyoto protocol has been a failure. But it was unquestionably an important first step in global climate diplomacy. The question is whether a more ambitious second step will follow in time to avoid unacceptable risks of devastating climate change.

The aim of the Kyoto Protocol is to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere. In outline, the scheme looks as follows: every region is allowed a certain amount of emissions into the atmosphere. The unused quotas are allowed to be sold to other regions.

Under the Kyoto protocol most developed nations other than the US committed themselves to targets for cutting or slowing their emissions of the key greenhouse gases that cause climate change. The targets varied between nations. Some were allowed to increase their emissions by a certain amount; others were required to make significant cuts. The average target was a cut of around 5% relative to 1990 levels by 2012 (or more accurately 2008–12). [20]

There are more successes than failures and the sum of emissions from nations with Kyoto targets have fallen significantly. In the meantime, however, emissions in the rest of the world have increased sharply – especially in China and other emerging economies

Cuts in carbon emissions by developed countries since 1990 have been cancelled out many times over by increases in imported goods from developing countries such as China, according to the most comprehensive global figures ever compiled.[21]

Under the protocol, emissions released during production of goods are assigned to the country where production takes place, rather than where goods are consumed.

According to available for public information, developed countries can claim to have reduced their collective emissions by almost 2% between 1990 and 2008. But once the carbon cost of imports have been added to each country, and exports subtracted – the true change has been an increase of 7%. If Russia and Ukraine – which cut their CO₂ emissions rapidly in the 1990s due to economic collapse – are excluded, the rise is 12%.

Much of the increase in emissions in the developed world is due to the US, which promised a 7% cut under Kyoto but then did not to ratify the protocol. Emissions within its borders increased by 17% between 1990 and 2008 – and by 25% when imports and exports are factored in.[22]

In the same period, UK emissions fell by 28 million tonnes, but when imports and exports are taken into account, the domestic footprint has risen by more than 100 million tonnes. Europe achieved a 6% cut in CO₂ emissions, but when outsourcing is considered that is reduced to 1%.[23]

China, whose growth has been driven by export-based industries, is usually described as the world's largest emitter of CO₂, but its footprint drops by almost a fifth when its imports and exports are taken into account, putting it firmly behind the US. China alone accounts for a massive 75% of the developed world's offshored emissions, according to the paper.

Environmental campaigners have long argued that global carbon accounting should be based on consumption rather than production of goods and services. One barrier to implementing such a system is the huge challenge of accurately monitoring the flow of emissions embodied in traded goods. Another barrier is that some policy-makers argue that consumer nations cannot or should not take full responsibility for their imports, both because they have no jurisdiction in foreign territories and because, even if they did, both producer and consumer nations benefit from trade, and therefore responsibility should be shared.[24]

The protocol has laid the base for such a future strategy by increasing the global awareness of the issue, stimulating research into the area of global warming, and providing an incentive for the development of science and technology to help curb emissions.

First phase ends on 1^st January 2013 and provides results, which may not achieve to results that were planned from beginning. However, it gives information on what could be changed and implemented in future for Kyoto Protocol in second phase, which planned for 2013-2020 period. Of course, many countries will disagree for implementing this argues it to results of first phase – 58 per cent more greenhouse gases than in 1990, as opposed to the five per cent reduction its signatories sought.

Russia decided to discontinue its participation in the protocol because the world’s major producers of greenhouse gases – the United States, China and India – are still refusing to commit themselves to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Kyoto Protocol, or any other, which should be implemented in future must be mandatory to all countries and industrial sectors, without exceptions. If such document, or rule, will be global, and build up on environmental impact, and not for economical “budget earning” issues, to reduce emissions, it will provide lower results of emissions that today. However, none of these countries will accept to spend their money without any return to their pockets.

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