Forecast of global events

BLACK SWAN

The term “Black Swan”, invented by trader-philosopher Nassim Taleb, means a totally unexpected abnormal event. Although such “black swans” as terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 have a huge impact on mankind,

it is practically impossible to predict them.

Karl Briullov. The last day of Pompeii. 1833.

On the brink of the bottomless abyss of paradise… Someone has to jump first… After Jericho bugles - saxophones…

Note: You can hear as if Jericho bugles (i.e. the legendary bugles from the “Revelation” (“Apocalypse”) by the St. Apostle John the Theologian) roaring now underground at this link: http://russia.tv/brand/show/brand_id/48525

Because of the upsurge of tectonic activity in the bowels of the Earth, our planet literally rumbles like a boiling kettle.

In 2015 or 2016 (in the winter of 2015-2016) there will be the largest in human history terrorist attack with the use of the compact nuclear devices. It will happen in the USA in several big cities at the same time, and it will come as if a “complete surprise” for the US security services. The most likely targets are Washington, New York, Los Angeles and San-Francisco (in San-Francisco seemingly the nuclear device will not explode for some reason). According to what we will see in the media, the terrorist attack will be organized as if by the underground Islamic cells and carried out as if by members of the multi-million Latin American and black minority in the US, which is merely physically beyond total control by agents of the US security services. The terrorist attack will seem to happen as if as a result of the “the fatal oversight” of the US security services. (The real main organizer and coordinator of this event – VVP – will discretely remain in the shadows.) The nuclear devices will be smuggled into the US as if via the established logistical channels of a Latin American drug cartel. Most likely the drug cartel will have no idea for what purpose it is used, and the drug barons will be completely unaware of the real content and real dispatchers of the deadly consignment, which will be delivered by them to the U.S. and well paid for through intermediaries. The immediate «manager» of the terrorist operation will be as if a grandson of a fugitive German WWII war criminal. The terrorists will blow up in the US (somehow on water) tactical neutron nuclear devices, minimized through red mercury, - which will turn out to be nuclear torpedo warheads as if from the Black Sea Fleet depots in Ukraine (in the Crimea), which were as if “appropriated” in chaos following the break-up of the USSR and sold in the black market by the Russian-Ukrainian unscrupulous dealers. (That is how it will be all presented in the media.) Relations of Ukraine (as well as Russia) with the US will become extremely hostile - after discovery of the “Ukrainian” and “Black Sea Fleet” trace of the terrorist nuclear devices, blown up in the US, and after horror experienced in Ukraine when faced by the threat of the US retaliatory nuclear strike (which will be blocked though by nuclear Russia), with nuclear alarm air-raid sirens wailing throughout Ukraine.

This terrorist attack in the US will result in the immediate crash of the single global monetary system. Subsequent developments are likely to unfold according to the most negative scenario. The world community grossly underestimates the magnitude of the devastating consequences of the collapse of the single world currency, and the mankind will be completely unprepared for the bankruptcy of the global banking and economic system, that will erupt with suddenness of an avalanche. The new global financial system will hardly be able to quickly develop and crystallize even during several months time. So, initially we will see for some time an entire cessation of payments, because of absence of the single measure of value. Short of total stoppage, we will see throughout the entire world an abrupt downfall of the volume of international trade, shipping, air travel, air freight, energy supplies (including Russian energy supplies to EU and other countries), and international food supplies. Quite rapidly the world trade will switch to barter. There will be attempts throughout the world to reinstate national and probably regional currency systems, but in the context of the general economic collapse there will be little trust in the regional and national currencies and their value. Hyperinflation will sweep like wildfire throughout the entire world. Both the fortunes of the rich and savings, wages and pensions of the common people will plummet in value.

The “hawks” in the US Congress and military command will put pressure on President Obama to order summary retaliatory strikes, including nuclear strikes at all US enemies. However, President Obama and a moderate wing of the US leadership will categorically refuse to embark on the path of unleashing a global nuclear war, - to a large extent because of their strong, substantiated suspicions about involvement in the nuclear terrorist attacks on the US soil, among OTHERS, also of the Israeli security services and pro-Israeli “hawks” in the US security services (as if with an aim of dragging America into the war with Iran in the interests of Israel). President Obama will refuse to engage the US in the Middle Eastern war, which can drag the US into the world war against the entire Moslem world. Because there will be a massive wave of anti-war public protests in the U.S. and throughout the world, including sharp warnings from the international public leaders, the UN and other international organizations, and also because of America’s abrupt loss of ALL military allies, who will be so scared of retaliatory nuclear terrorism that they will hastily pull out the remainder of their troops from Afghanistan. In the face of the overwhelming public pressure, all present US allies will flatly refuse to be dragged into any global military adventures.

The wave of militaristic hysteria will rise in the US. Opponents of President Obama in the Congress and the “hawks” will openly challenge the President, and they will start pressing for his removal. To satisfy public thirst for revenge, President Obama will be forced to take action, but he will launch only limited strikes of the US security services against the leaders of the Islamic groups and Latin American drug cartels, with total disregard to the protests of the leaders of foreign countries.

Israel will launch a massive preemptive air assault on Iran. The US President Obama will try to prevent Israel’s attack on Iran, but Israeli leadership will act unilaterally in total disregard of the U.S. President’s protests. Israel will launch missile attacks and bombing raids against Iran’s nuclear and military facilities, as well as Iran’s infrastructure. After that, the US President will also fail to avert Iran’s retaliatory missile strikes against Israel. Some Iranian missiles will be intercepted by the US and Israeli anti-missile defences, but many Iranian missiles will hit Israeli cities, which will arouse a general militaristic psychosis in Israel. The Israeli public will demand to punish Iran and to eliminate the Iranian threat once and for all. The Israeli leadership will call on the US to make a joint strike at Iran.

The US Congress and the “hawks” will urge President Obama to give an order to launch a nuclear strike at Iran. The US President will deploy in the Persian Gulf several naval groups, including aircraft carriers, in a bid to prevent escalation of the war and blockade of the Ormuz Straits. However, President Obama will not give an order to the US military to launch attacks against Iran. As long as President Obama remains in power, he will resist pressure by the pro-Israeli Jewish lobby and “hawks” to plunge the US all-out into the war against Iran and hostilities in the Middle East.

In response to the Israeli strike at Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas will launch rocket and terrorist attacks against Israel. The wave of anti-Israeli and anti-American public wroth will sweep across the Middle East and the entire Moslem world, which will lead to terrorist attacks against Israelis, Americans, and the regimes that support them.

After arrival to Russia of the Iranian refugees and radioactive clouds from Iran, against a backdrop of the sharp deterioration in the Russian-American and Russian-Western relations, Russia will cease any cooperation with the US (first of all, on Afghanistan), and Russians will hand over modern air defence systems to Iran, in order to contain Israel’s aggression and escalation of the nuclear war in Russia’s neighbourhood.

Following cessation of the food aid to North Korea, in the face of hunger, North Korea will stage another military provocation on the Korean Peninsula, in the hopes of forcing the US and South Korea to make concessions and to renew food aid to North Korea. However, the North Korea’s misguided provocation will backfire. The massive backlash of the outraged South Korean public will push the South Korean government to launch an unprecedented all-out retaliatory strike against North Korea. In reply to South Korea’s “disproportional” counter-attack, North Korea will use nuclear weapons against Seoul. The nuclear charge may be delivered to Seoul in an unexpected way. While South Korean authorities and their American allies will brace themselves for a missile attack, the North Korean warhead may be delivered to South Korea by the secret underground tunnels and blown up right under Seoul.

The “hawks” in the US Congress and military command will press President Obama to fulfil the US allied obligations to South Korea and to launch a nuclear reprisal strike at Pyongyang. However, after consultations, President Obama will refuse to issue such an order, out of sober assessment that in addition to the war in the Middle East, America cannot afford to be dragged into a nuclear war in the Asia-Pacific region.

A profound, irreconcilable rift will split the American ruling elite.

Amid Israel’s disastrous war with Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas, despite Washington’s protests - Israel will on its own launch a nuclear strike at Isfahan, the third largest Iranian city and a site of Iran’s experimental nuclear reactor and a plant for conversion of nuclear materials. The US Congress will urge President Obama to support Israel’s war with Iran by the US nuclear strike at Iran. But President Obama will once again refuse to issue such an order.

The relationship between the US and Israel will dramatically cool down and shrink (including conclusion behind Israel’s back of the separate American-Palestinian agreement). However, the Jewish lobby will manage to partly preserve the basis of the military and technical cooperation between the U.S. and Israel.

Backed and inspired by the anti-Israeli and anti-American forces, the Moslem radicals in Afghanistan and other Moslem countries will launch ferocious attacks against the US personnel and facilities in these countries. President Obama’s proposal to immediately withdraw the remainder of the US troops from Afghanistan and other regions will meet stalwart opposition among the US “hawks” and the majority of the US Congress. That (or something similar) may serve as a formal pretext for the start of the impeachment procedure.

Israel’s onslaught on Iran will engulf the Middle East and the entire Moslem world in the flames of new uprisings and civil wars. ALL pro-American regimes in these regions will be toppled, and Islamic radicals will come to power throughout the entire Moslem world. Among other Islamic nations, Moslem radicals will also come to power in the leading country of the Moslem and Arab world – Egypt – as a result of fusion in the government of the military establishment and Islamists. In order to stay in power, some Middle Eastern regimes will hastily renounce their ties to the US, raise the green banner of Jihad, and incorporate into their governments the earlier harassed radical Islamist oppositionists.

Afghanistan and Iraq will disintegrate into chiefdoms, controlled by radical Islamists, some of whom will be under the influence of the neighbouring countries, for example, Shiite part of Iraq.

To counter the Israeli-American threat, the global military and political alliance of Moslem countries will be formed (including nuclear Pakistan). This alliance will be also joined by some other countries of the world, for example, Venezuela and maybe also some other Latin American nations.

The Middle East will balance on the verge of the nuclear disaster. The persistent calls for destruction of Israel will be contained only the threat of Israel’s overwhelming nuclear counter-strike.

Irreconcilable split in the US ruling elite will deteriorate into an armed confrontation. There will be attempts to impeach President Obama, and he will be physically eliminated during the most acute stage of the armed power struggle. The US military and security services will also split up and start taking sides in the battle for power between antagonistic factions of the divided American elite. After removing President Obama, members of the militaristic wing of the American elite will declare themselves as the only legitimate power in the US, and they will order to launch nuclear strikes at Iran and North Korea. The US military command in Persian Gulf will remain loyal to Obama’s group, and they will refuse to carry out this order. The command of the US Navy in the Pacific Ocean will obey this order, and they will carry out a nuclear strike at Pyongyang. After removal of President Obama, there may also be a strike of the American “hawks” at the countries of the Middle East, which will only deepen radicalization of the Moslem world.

There will be a huge wave of anti-American and anti-Israeli animosity throughout the world, including sharp rise of anti-American sentiments among the present US allies. EU and Japan will categorically refuse to support the US military actions in the Middle East (including Israel’s war with Iran), and they will also oppose the US strike against North Korea. The majority of the US allies will de-facto sever their allied ties with Washington. NATO will actually cease to exist as a military bloc.

There will be a complete break-down of the present security system, including NPT, paralysis of the UN and other international cooperation forums, and emergence of the new multi-polar unstable world, balancing on the verge of nuclear catastrophe.

In the wake of the nuclear strikes at Iran and North Korea, several threshold countries (including Germany, Brazil, Canada, Japan, South Korea and possibly Turkey) will hastily develop their own nuclear deterrent.

After the showdown between antagonistic groups of the divided American elite, the American “hawks” will try to seize power in Washington. They will try to exploit initial militaristic hysteria among some Americans by declaring general mobilization, in order to begin military expansion in the world. However, in the eyes of the majority of Americans and elite of the individual States, the federal government in Washington will begin to lose its legitimacy. During several months time the living standards in the US will rapidly catastrophically drop to the Third World level. America will be engulfed in the mass social rioting and racial unrest. The federal government will be quickly losing authority, and the individual States, one after another, will begin to refuse to recognize the divided, illegitimate and unpopular federal government, which only drags millions of common Americans into the civil war at home and disastrous military adventures oversees. The majority of the individual States will flatly refuse to get involved in unleashing of the world war, and they will reject the call-up. There will be an unprecedented nationwide popular movement against the war across the US. Anti-war protests will revive the good old idea of isolationism. In a similar manner as during the break-up of the USSR, the individual American States, one after another, will begin to declare sovereignty and independence. Obama is the last President of the USA as we know it now. In 2016 the southern US states will lead the way in drawing the border, and consequently in 2016 there will be no more national presidential elections in the USA. Once most States declare their independence and the federal government actually ceases to exist, the individual States will unite into three confederations: Western, Eastern and Southern. Arnold Schwarzenegger will be elected the President of the Southern American Confederation.

The US will cease to exist as the world leader and super-power. In a similar way as it was after the break-up of the USSR, which, after disintegration, switched over to the parallel use of foreign currencies, - the USA after disintegration will also use, alongside post-dollar local currencies, also other foreign currencies, like euro and others. The US economy will also switch to the use of its own conserved energy resources. The US troops will be hastily pulled out and returned home from the entire world, including Afghanistan, Middle East, South Korea, Japan, Europe and other regions.

The former US President George Bush junior will seemingly commit suicide.

Attempts to introduce the new global money and fully re-start the world trade will fail. The global economic collapse will result in the sharp deterioration of the living standards of billions of people, including the present developed countries. Actually the entire world will become the Third World. Amid sharp deterioration of the living standards in the West, the present notion of the “Golden Billion” will not exist any more. The global lending system will collapse, the credit stranglehold will disappear, and Ukraine too will not have to repay its foreign loans.

Ukraine.

There will be no full-scale Russian open military invasion into Ukraine. However, as long as Putin stays in power, Russia will methodically continue in the South-East of Ukraine its massive undeclared aggression, “separatist”, subversive and terrorist activities.

There will be no resumption (fully) of Russia’s energy supplies to Ukraine.

The Ukrainian economy will be rapidly disintegrating.

Living standards will dramatically drop throughout Ukraine, provoking a wave of protests.

The Ukrainian monetary system will begin to disintegrate, and economic operations will switch to barter. Amid shortages of oil, gas, fuel and foodstuffs, the individual Ukrainian regions will conduct barter trade, for example, exchanging coal for grain.

The national and regional authorities will show their incapability and total unpreparedness to govern during an acute crisis.

Mass exodus of the population from the collapsing cities to the countryside.

Ukraine will fully face the return of the boomerang of federalism and separatism, that President Victor Yanukovych threw during the Ukrainian Orange Revolution in 2004 at a separatist congress in 2004 in the city of Severodonetsk in East Ukraine.

With continuing massive Russian interference, we will see continuation of manifestations of separatism in the South-East of Ukraine. On the background of the mass discontent and public protests, Ukraine will continue to face a serious threat of autonomization, federalization and even territorial break-up of Ukraine. The Ukrainian unified constitutional field will be fragmented by separatists, autonomists and federalists into separate “dark” areas. The real authority of the national bodies of government will dramatically shrink. The regional authorities, especially in the pro-Russian Eastern and Southern parts of Ukraine, will allow themselves to disobey the orders of the national government and to loosen ties with Kiev. They will form regional armed formations, and establish customs and security check-points on the borders between the regions of Ukraine.

The stay in power of the transitional Jewish president of Ukraine, oligarch Valtsman-Poroshenko seemingly will not last long, and in 2016 he will leave in some dramatic circumstances (his departure somehow precipitated - seemingly in the winter of 2015-2016 - by gas, or rather its disappearance, and general financial and economic collapse in Ukraine). The coup. The self-defence units will be the only real power. The Right Sector and other radical Ukrainian patriots will be the only real power in Kiev. After which Yanukovych will declare that he remains the only legitimate president. Yanukovych will return to East Ukraine. Yanukovych’s life will end up with a bullet in the left upper part of his midriff. After Valtsman-Poroshenko, the full-fledged, non-foreign-imposed-non-puppet presidency in Ukraine is nowhere in sight altogether.

The Jewish oligarchic grouping (plus chorus), that wriggled its way to the top power in Ukraine in 2014 on the wave of the revolution: “An object lesson on how to bungle it all fast”.

Dissolution of parliament (Rada), elected in 2012. The new Rada elected in late 2014 will last even less than its predecessor. Subsequently we will see formation in the ‘federalist’ (south-east) and ‘non-federalist’ (west, north, centre) parts of Ukraine of the two separate parliaments, which will not be recognizing each other. Seemingly Medvedchuk will be head of the federalist government; maybe Martyniuk will be head of the federalist parliament.

The movement of the oligarchic republic Ukraine towards the total break-up and the drift of the pro-Russian Eastern and Southern regions of Ukraine towards Russia will stop on its own for the simple reason: Because of rapid deterioration of the situation inside Russia itself.

After the nuclear terrorist attacks in the US and crash of the single global currency, - collapse of the international payments system will force Russia also to stop all its energy supplies abroad, except limited barter supplies.

Fast deterioration of the economic situation inside Russia will not allow Russia to provide the pro-Russian regions of Ukraine with sizable volumes of energy supplies on favourable terms, because Russia itself will face severe problems with energy supplies to its own regions. An avalanche of domestic economic problems inside Russia, and political, social and separatist protests in many Russian regions will push Ukraine to the very bottom of the list of Russia’s priorities at the time.

There will be a steady stream to Ukraine of the refugees and migrants from the regions of the world most affected by the crisis and conflicts. Our compatriots who earlier left Ukraine, will start returning to Ukraine, for example, from Europe, USA and Israel.

Following nuclear terrorist attacks in the US and eruption of hostilities and nuclear strikes in the Middle East and on the Korean Peninsula, the Ukrainian parliament will adopt a statement, appealing to parliaments, governments and peoples of the world to declare a total ban on the weapons of mass destruction, and even to make one step further and completely ban the war as an instrument of international relations.

The former Ukrainian President Kuchma will be charged of committing grave crimes against the State and put in custody. (Seemingly in the springtime.) One of the charges will concern the origin of the nuclear devices blown up by terrorists in the USA. Following his refusal to take poison while in detention, he will somehow get out of jail for some time, only to be eliminated by security services in an arranged car crash on the Russian-Ukrainian highway near the city of Konotop in Sumy region in Ukraine.

The life path of the oligarchic thief and crook Tymoshenko will also end dramatically. (It will be done by those who are supposed to guard her. At the time seemingly Klichko will still occupy a post in Kiev.)

Russia.

In early 2016, after some power struggle in the Russian leadership, Putin will be removed from power in the “palace coup”. The so called power ministers will refuse to recognise him. Putin will not be allowed to run for another term in office. After Putin, Russia will be headed by the chief of staff of President Putin’s administration - Sergey Ivanov; and the new Russian leadership seemingly will be more collective. However, the “new” Russian leadership will not be any “better” for us – Ukraine. After departure of Putin, seemingly from March 2016 there will be no more war in Ukraine. However, partially due to the Russian instigation, the processes of Ukraine’s regional fragmentation will start.

After decline of the global status of the USA, in a bid to reassert its imperial standing in the world, - Russia will further step up its imperial activities, - not only in Ukraine, but also in the other parts of the former USSR. For example, there will be a coup in Azerbaijan designed to install a pro-Russian regime there, and unrest of the Russian speaking minority in Latvia. However, this short-lived activity will come nowhere near to restoring Russia’s imperial status even remotely comparable to the former USSR.

There will be a surge of anti-Putin political and social protests, and rise of pro-autonomy and separatist sentiments in the energy extracting regions of Russia, especially in Tatarstan, Siberia and in the Far East of Russia, plus resurgence of Islamists in the Northern Caucasus.

Amid severe global economic crisis and absence of the single measure of value in the world, the volume of Russia’s energy supplies to other countries (which is the main source of Russia’s revenue) will sharply drop. Collapse of the international payments system will force Russia to stop its energy supplies abroad, except limited barter supplies (which will be similar to Russia’s barter gas supplies to Ukraine in the 1990s).

Дата добавления: 2015-10-23