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We predict advertising costs will go down in the next three years. We will be able to find what has worked well for us and concentrate on those advertising methods. Normally, a start-up concern will operate with negative profits through the first two years. We will avoid that kind of operating loss by knowing our target markets.
Chart: Profit Monthly
Chart: Profit Yearly
Chart: Gross Margin Monthly
Chart: Gross Margin Yearly
Table: Profit and Loss
| Pro Forma Profit and Loss | |||
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | |
| Sales | $325,500 | $390,600 | $468,720 |
| Direct Cost of Sales | $162,750 | $195,300 | $234,360 |
| Other Costs of Goods | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Total Cost of Sales | $162,750 | $195,300 | $234,360 |
| Gross Margin | $162,750 | $195,300 | $234,360 |
| Gross Margin % | 50.00% | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| Expenses | |||
| Payroll | $145,200 | $151,100 | $162,200 |
| Sales and Marketing and Other Expenses | $12,000 | $0 | $0 |
| Depreciation | $1,143 | $1,143 | $1,143 |
| Rent | $36,000 | $0 | $0 |
| Utilities | $3,300 | $0 | $0 |
| Insurance | $3,600 | $0 | $0 |
| Payroll Taxes | $21,780 | $22,665 | $24,330 |
| Other | $2,400 | $0 | $0 |
| Total Operating Expenses | $225,423 | $174,908 | $187,673 |
| Profit Before Interest and Taxes | ($62,673) | $20,392 | $46,687 |
| EBITDA | ($61,530) | $21,535 | $47,830 |
| Interest Expense | $34 | $161 | $77 |
| Taxes Incurred | $0 | $5,058 | $11,847 |
| Net Profit | ($62,707) | $15,173 | $34,763 |
| Net Profit/Sales | -19.26% | 3.88% | 7.42% |
7.5 Projected Balance Sheet
All of our tables will be updated monthly to reflect past performance and future assumptions. Future assumptions will not be based on past performance but rather on economic cycle activity, regional industry strength, and future cash flow possibilities. We expect solid growth in net worth beyond the year 2006.
Table: Balance Sheet
| Pro Forma Balance Sheet | |||
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | |
| Assets | |||
| Current Assets | |||
| Cash | $8,406 | $11,513 | $46,318 |
| Inventory | $23,650 | $21,615 | $25,938 |
| Other Current Assets | $1,000 | $1,000 | $1,000 |
| Total Current Assets | $33,056 | $34,128 | $73,256 |
| Long-term Assets | |||
| Long-term Assets | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 |
| Accumulated Depreciation | $1,143 | $2,286 | $3,429 |
| Total Long-term Assets | $8,857 | $7,714 | $6,571 |
| Total Assets | $41,914 | $41,843 | $79,827 |
| Liabilities and Capital | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
| Current Liabilities | |||
| Accounts Payable | $32,221 | $18,177 | $22,598 |
| Current Borrowing | $2,900 | $1,700 | $500 |
| Other Current Liabilities | $500 | $500 | $500 |
| Subtotal Current Liabilities | $35,621 | $20,377 | $23,598 |
| Long-term Liabilities | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Total Liabilities | $35,621 | $20,377 | $23,598 |
| Paid-in Capital | $82,000 | $82,000 | $82,000 |
| Retained Earnings | ($13,000) | ($75,707) | ($60,534) |
| Earnings | ($62,707) | $15,173 | $34,763 |
| Total Capital | $6,293 | $21,466 | $56,229 |
| Total Liabilities and Capital | $41,914 | $41,843 | $79,827 |
| Net Worth | $6,293 | $21,466 | $56,229 |
7.6 Business Ratios
We expect our net profit margin and gross margin, to increase steadily over the three-year period. Our net working capital will increase handsomely by year three, proving that we have the cash flows to remain a going concern. The following table shows these important financial ratios, based upon NAICS industry code 452112, Discount Department Stores.
Table: Ratios
| Ratio Analysis | ||||
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Industry Profile | |
| Sales Growth | n.a. | 20.00% | 20.00% | 6.06% |
| Percent of Total Assets | ||||
| Inventory | 56.43% | 51.66% | 32.49% | 47.62% |
| Other Current Assets | 2.39% | 2.39% | 1.25% | 28.89% |
| Total Current Assets | 78.87% | 81.56% | 91.77% | 80.40% |
| Long-term Assets | 21.13% | 18.44% | 8.23% | 19.60% |
| Total Assets | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| Current Liabilities | 84.99% | 48.70% | 29.56% | 17.64% |
| Long-term Liabilities | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 10.82% |
| Total Liabilities | 84.99% | 48.70% | 29.56% | 28.46% |
| Net Worth | 15.01% | 51.30% | 70.44% | 71.54% |
| Percent of Sales | ||||
| Sales | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| Gross Margin | 50.00% | 50.00% | 50.00% | 27.06% |
| Selling, General & Administrative Expenses | 69.26% | 46.12% | 42.54% | 9.93% |
| Advertising Expenses | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1.10% |
| Profit Before Interest and Taxes | -19.25% | 5.22% | 9.96% | 3.24% |
| Main Ratios | ||||
| Current | 0.93 | 1.67 | 3.10 | 3.98 |
| Quick | 0.26 | 0.61 | 2.01 | 1.18 |
| Total Debt to Total Assets | 84.99% | 48.70% | 29.56% | 41.68% |
| Pre-tax Return on Net Worth | -996.49% | 94.25% | 82.89% | 7.89% |
| Pre-tax Return on Assets | -149.61% | 48.35% | 58.39% | 13.53% |
| Additional Ratios | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | |
| Net Profit Margin | -19.26% | 3.88% | 7.42% | n.a |
| Return on Equity | -996.49% | 70.68% | 61.82% | n.a |
| Activity Ratios | ||||
| Inventory Turnover | 10.84 | 8.63 | 9.86 | n.a |
| Accounts Payable Turnover | 7.62 | 12.17 | 12.17 | n.a |
| Payment Days | n.a | |||
| Total Asset Turnover | 7.77 | 9.33 | 5.87 | n.a |
| Debt Ratios | ||||
| Debt to Net Worth | 5.66 | 0.95 | 0.42 | n.a |
| Current Liab. to Liab. | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | n.a |
| Liquidity Ratios | ||||
| Net Working Capital | ($2,564) | $13,752 | $49,658 | n.a |
| Interest Coverage | -1,821.00 | 126.66 | 606.32 | n.a |
| Additional Ratios | ||||
| Assets to Sales | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.17 | n.a |
| Current Debt/Total Assets | 85% | 49% | 30% | n.a |
| Acid Test | 0.26 | 0.61 | 2.01 | n.a |
| Sales/Net Worth | 51.73 | 18.20 | 8.34 | n.a |
| Dividend Payout | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | n.a |
Table: Sales Forecast
| Sales Forecast | |||||||||||||
| Month 1 | Month 2 | Month 3 | Month 4 | Month 5 | Month 6 | Month 7 | Month 8 | Month 9 | Month 10 | Month 11 | Month 12 | ||
| Sales | |||||||||||||
| Perishable Items | 0% | $6,000 | $6,500 | $7,000 | $7,500 | $8,500 | $9,000 | $9,000 | $9,000 | $10,000 | $12,000 | $12,000 | $17,000 |
| Non-Perishible Items | 0% | $12,000 | $13,000 | $14,000 | $15,000 | $17,000 | $18,000 | $18,000 | $18,000 | $19,000 | $21,000 | $21,000 | $26,000 |
| Total Sales | $18,000 | $19,500 | $21,000 | $22,500 | $25,500 | $27,000 | $27,000 | $27,000 | $29,000 | $33,000 | $33,000 | $43,000 | |
| Direct Cost of Sales | Month 1 | Month 2 | Month 3 | Month 4 | Month 5 | Month 6 | Month 7 | Month 8 | Month 9 | Month 10 | Month 11 | Month 12 | |
| Perishable Items | $3,000 | $3,250 | $3,500 | $3,750 | $4,250 | $4,500 | $4,500 | $4,500 | $5,000 | $6,000 | $6,000 | $8,500 | |
| Non-Perishable Items | $6,000 | $6,500 | $7,000 | $7,500 | $8,500 | $9,000 | $9,000 | $9,000 | $9,500 | $10,500 | $10,500 | $13,000 | |
| Subtotal Direct Cost of Sales | $9,000 | $9,750 | $10,500 | $11,250 | $12,750 | $13,500 | $13,500 | $13,500 | $14,500 | $16,500 | $16,500 | $21,500 |
Table: Personnel
| Personnel Plan | |||||||||||||
| Month 1 | Month 2 | Month 3 | Month 4 | Month 5 | Month 6 | Month 7 | Month 8 | Month 9 | Month 10 | Month 11 | Month 12 | ||
| Owner | 0% | $2,000 | $2,000 | $2,000 | $2,000 | $2,000 | $2,000 | $2,000 | $2,000 | $2,000 | $2,000 | $2,000 | $2,000 |
| Owner/Manager | 0% | $2,500 | $2,500 | $2,500 | $2,500 | $2,500 | $2,500 | $2,500 | $2,500 | $2,500 | $2,500 | $2,500 | $2,500 |
| Full Time | 0% | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 |
| Full Time | 0% | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 |
| Full Time | 0% | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 |
| Full Time | 0% | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 | $1,400 |
| Part Time | 0% | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 |
| Part Time | 0% | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 |
| Part Time | 0% | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 |
| Part Time | 0% | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 | $500 |
| Total People | |||||||||||||
| Total Payroll | $12,100 | $12,100 | $12,100 | $12,100 | $12,100 | $12,100 | $12,100 | $12,100 | $12,100 | $12,100 | $12,100 | $12,100 |
Table: General Assumptions
| General Assumptions | |||||||||||||
| Month 1 | Month 2 | Month 3 | Month 4 | Month 5 | Month 6 | Month 7 | Month 8 | Month 9 | Month 10 | Month 11 | Month 12 | ||
| Plan Month | |||||||||||||
| Current Interest Rate | 7.00% | 7.00% | 7.00% | 7.00% | 7.00% | 7.00% | 7.00% | 7.00% | 7.00% | 7.00% | 7.00% | 7.00% | |
| Long-term Interest Rate | 20.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | |
| Tax Rate | 30.00% | 25.00% | 25.00% | 25.00% | 25.00% | 25.00% | 25.00% | 25.00% | 25.00% | 25.00% | 25.00% | 25.00% | |
| Other |
Table: Profit and Loss
| Pro Forma Profit and Loss | |||||||||||||
| Month 1 | Month 2 | Month 3 | Month 4 | Month 5 | Month 6 | Month 7 | Month 8 | Month 9 | Month 10 | Month 11 | Month 12 | ||
| Sales | $18,000 | $19,500 | $21,000 | $22,500 | $25,500 | $27,000 | $27,000 | $27,000 | $29,000 | $33,000 | $33,000 | $43,000 | |
| Direct Cost of Sales | $9,000 | $9,750 | $10,500 | $11,250 | $12,750 | $13,500 | $13,500 | $13,500 | $14,500 | $16,500 | $16,500 | $21,500 | |
| Other Costs of Goods | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| Total Cost of Sales | $9,000 | $9,750 | $10,500 | $11,250 | $12,750 | $13,500 | $13,500 | $13,500 | $14,500 | $16,500 | $16,500 | $21,500 | |
| Gross Margin | $9,000 | $9,750 | $10,500 | $11,250 | $12,750 | $13,500 | $13,500 | $13,500 | $14,500 | $16,500 | $16,500 | $21,500 | |
| Gross Margin % | 50.00% | 50.00% | 50.00% | 50.00% | 50.00% | 50.00% | 50.00% | 50.00% | 50.00% | 50.00% | 50.00% | 50.00% | |
| Expenses | |||||||||||||
| Payroll | $12,100 | $12,100 | $12,100 | $12,100 | $12,100 | $12,100 | $12,100 | $12,100 | $12,100 | $12,100 | $12,100 | $12,100 | |
| Sales and Marketing and Other Expenses | $1,000 | $1,000 | $1,000 | $1,000 | $1,000 | $1,000 | $1,000 | $1,000 | $1,000 | $1,000 | $1,000 | $1,000 | |
| Depreciation | $95 | $95 | $95 | $95 | $95 | $95 | $95 | $95 | $95 | $95 | $95 | $95 | |
| Rent | $3,000 | $3,000 | $3,000 | $3,000 | $3,000 | $3,000 | $3,000 | $3,000 | $3,000 | $3,000 | $3,000 | $3,000 | |
| Utilities | $300 | $300 | $300 | $300 | $300 | $300 | $300 | $300 | $300 | $300 | $300 | $0 | |
| Insurance | $300 | $300 | $300 | $300 | $300 | $300 | $300 | $300 | $300 | $300 | $300 | $300 | |
| Payroll Taxes | 15% | $1,815 | $1,815 | $1,815 | $1,815 | $1,815 | $1,815 | $1,815 | $1,815 | $1,815 | $1,815 | $1,815 | $1,815 |
| Other | $200 | $200 | $200 | $200 | $200 | $200 | $200 | $200 | $200 | $200 | $200 | $200 | |
| Total Operating Expenses | $18,810 | $18,810 | $18,810 | $18,810 | $18,810 | $18,810 | $18,810 | $18,810 | $18,810 | $18,810 | $18,810 | $18,510 | |
| Profit Before Interest and Taxes | ($9,810) | ($9,060) | ($8,310) | ($7,560) | ($6,060) | ($5,310) | ($5,310) | ($5,310) | ($4,310) | ($2,310) | ($2,310) | $2,990 | |
| EBITDA | ($9,715) | ($8,965) | ($8,215) | ($7,465) | ($5,965) | ($5,215) | ($5,215) | ($5,215) | ($4,215) | ($2,215) | ($2,215) | $3,085 | |
| Interest Expense | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $18 | $17 | |
| Taxes Incurred | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| Net Profit | ($9,810) | ($9,060) | ($8,310) | ($7,560) | ($6,060) | ($5,310) | ($5,310) | ($5,310) | ($4,310) | ($2,310) | ($2,328) | $2,973 | |
| Net Profit/Sales | -54.50% | -46.46% | -39.57% | -33.60% | -23.77% | -19.67% | -19.67% | -19.67% | -14.86% | -7.00% | -7.05% | 6.91% |
Table: Cash Flow
| Pro Forma Cash Flow | |||||||||||||
| Month 1 | Month 2 | Month 3 | Month 4 | Month 5 | Month 6 | Month 7 | Month 8 | Month 9 | Month 10 | Month 11 | Month 12 | ||
| Cash Received | |||||||||||||
| Cash from Operations | |||||||||||||
| Cash Sales | $18,000 | $19,500 | $21,000 | $22,500 | $25,500 | $27,000 | $27,000 | $27,000 | $29,000 | $33,000 | $33,000 | $43,000 | |
| Subtotal Cash from Operations | $18,000 | $19,500 | $21,000 | $22,500 | $25,500 | $27,000 | $27,000 | $27,000 | $29,000 | $33,000 | $33,000 | $43,000 | |
| Additional Cash Received | |||||||||||||
| Sales Tax, VAT, HST/GST Received | 0.00% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| New Current Borrowing | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $3,000 | $0 | |
| New Other Liabilities (interest-free) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| New Long-term Liabilities | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| Sales of Other Current Assets | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| Sales of Long-term Assets | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| New Investment Received | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $2,000 | $0 | |
| Subtotal Cash Received | $18,000 | $19,500 | $21,000 | $22,500 | $25,500 | $27,000 | $27,000 | $27,000 | $29,000 | $33,000 | $38,000 | $43,000 | |
| Expenditures | Month 1 | Month 2 | Month 3 | Month 4 | Month 5 | Month 6 | Month 7 | Month 8 | Month 9 | Month 10 | Month 11 | Month 12 | |
| Expenditures from Operations | |||||||||||||
| Cash Spending | $12,100 | $12,100 | $12,100 | $12,100 | $12,100 | $12,100 | $12,100 | $12,100 | $12,100 | $12,100 | $12,100 | $12,100 | |
| Bill Payments | $6,221 | $6,931 | $16,152 | $17,965 | $18,768 | $21,013 | $20,913 | $20,115 | $20,185 | $22,318 | $25,242 | $23,472 | |
| Subtotal Spent on Operations | $18,321 | $19,031 | $28,252 | $30,065 | $30,868 | $33,113 | $33,013 | $32,215 | $32,285 | $34,418 | $37,342 | $35,572 | |
| Additional Cash Spent | |||||||||||||
| Sales Tax, VAT, HST/GST Paid Out | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| Principal Repayment of Current Borrowing | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $100 | |
| Other Liabilities Principal Repayment | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| Long-term Liabilities Principal Repayment | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| Purchase Other Current Assets | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| Purchase Long-term Assets | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| Dividends | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| Subtotal Cash Spent | $18,321 | $19,031 | $28,252 | $30,065 | $30,868 | $33,113 | $33,013 | $32,215 | $32,285 | $34,418 | $37,342 | $35,672 | |
| Net Cash Flow | ($321) | $469 | ($7,252) | ($7,565) | ($5,368) | ($6,113) | ($6,013) | ($5,215) | ($3,285) | ($1,418) | $658 | $7,328 | |
| Cash Balance | $42,180 | $42,649 | $35,397 | $27,832 | $22,465 | $16,352 | $10,340 | $5,125 | $1,840 | $421 | $1,079 | $8,406 |
Table: Balance Sheet
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