Introduction. Implications for strategy

IMPLICATIONS FOR STRATEGY

Ian O. Lesser

Terrorism is, among other things, a weapon used by the weak against

the strong. The United States will move into the 21st century as a

preeminent, global power in a period of tremendous flux within societies,

among nations, and across states and regions. Terrorism will

accompany changes at each of these levels, as it has in other periods

of flux in the international environment. To the extent that the

United States continues to be engaged as a global power, terrorism

will have the potential to affect American interests directly and indirectly,

from attacks on U.S. territory—including low-probability but

high-consequence “superterrorism” with weapons of mass destruction—

to attacks affecting our diplomatic and economic ties abroad,

or our ability to maintain a forward military presence or project

power in times of crisis. The United States will also have a unique,

systemic interest in terrorism as a global problem—including acts of

“domestic” terrorism confined within state borders that make up the

bulk of terrorism worldwide—even where the United States is not directly

or even indirectly targeted. In one way or another, terrorism

can affect our freedom of action, not just with regard to national security

strategy narrowly defined, but across a range of compelling issues,

from drugs and money laundering to information and energy

policy.

Many of our high-priority national objectives have been shaken by

the recent experience of terrorism. The Oklahoma and World Trade

Center bombings struck at our sense of security within our borders.

Attacks against U.S. forces in Saudi Arabia raise questions about our

strategy for presence and stability in an area of critical importance

for world energy supply. The U.S. embassy bombings in Kenya and

Tanzania raise questions about the exposure that comes with active

engagement in world affairs, and point to the risks of privately sponsored

terrorism. The assassination of Prime Minister Rabin and the

campaign of suicide bombings in Israel has put the Middle East

peace process in serious jeopardy, threatening a critical and longstanding

U.S. diplomatic objective. Elsewhere, terrorism has destabilized

allies (in Egypt and Turkey), and has rendered counternarcotics

relationships difficult (in Colombia and Mexico). Where

societies and regions are fundamentally unstable, and where

political outcomes are delicately poised, terrorism will have a

particular ability to affect strategic futures.

UNDERSTANDING AND COUNTERING THE “NEW”

Дата добавления: 2015-10-21