TERRORISM. This chapter explores the problem of terrorism in the broader national

This chapter explores the problem of terrorism in the broader national

and international security context. It takes as its point of departure

completed analyses of terrorism trends and prospects, as

well as specialized assessments of weapons of mass destruction

(WMD) and information-related risks.3 These analyses point to the

steady augmentation of traditional patterns of terrorism by new

forms of the phenomenon, both as stand-alone threats and in the

context of more conventional conflict (i.e., as an asymmetric strategy).

This new terrorism is increasingly networked; more diverse in

terms of motivations, sponsorship, and security consequences; more

global in reach; and more lethal. As a result, much existing counterterrorism

experience may be losing its relevance as network forms of

organization replace the canonical terrorist hierarchies, or as state

sponsorship becomes more subtle and difficult to expose.

Similarly, many of the leading concepts of air power in relation to

counterterrorism strategy may need to be revised. There will be a

continuing need for preemption, deterrence, and retaliation in relation

to state sponsors. But the key tasks for air and space power in

the future may have as much or more to do with the surveillance, exposure,

and targeting of nonstate actors, and even individuals. The

transforming contribution of air and space power to national counterterrorism

strategy will be making terrorism—an inherently amorphous

phenomenon—more transparent for policymakers and the international

community.

This chapter focuses to a great extent on “international terrorism”

and terrorism in the international arena. The problem of domestic

terrorism in the United States is addressed only in passing, a consequence

of the need to limit the scope and focus of the study rather

than a judgment about the significance of the problem. Indeed, the

problem of domestic terrorism is growing and the threat of domestic

and “insider” terrorism against U.S. military facilities and personnel

would be a fertile area for further analysis. It is also worth noting that

terrorism experts are increasingly uncomfortable with the traditional

distinction between domestic and international terror in an age of

global communications and networked terrorism.4 Many of the most

serious terrorist risks to U.S. national security—above all, those of

mass destruction and mass disruption in periods of crisis or

conflict—can have a transnational dimension.

The following discussion places terrorism in strategic context by exploring

terrorist threats to U.S. interests and future sources of risk,

examines past U.S. and allied experience, offers a framework for

counterterrorism strategy, and provides overall findings and implications

for the U.S. military.

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