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Exercises. 1. The following time series shows the sales of a particular product over the past 12 month.

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1. The following time series shows the sales of a particular product over the past 12 month.

 

Month Sales Month Sales

 

Use to compute the simple exponential smoothing to obtain forecasts of sales over the next three months. Graph the observed time series and the forecasts.

 

 

2. The following table gives the gross domestic product (in billions of dollars) of the country for the years 1990 through 1997.

 

Year GDP
1768.4 1974.1 2488.6 3030.6 3405.0 4038.7 4268.6 4900.4

 

Use the method of simple exponential smoothing, with a smoothing constant of , to obtain forecasts of GDP for the next two years. Graph the observed time series and the forecasts.

3. The following table shows the year-end price of gold (in dollars) over 10 consecutive years.

 

Year Price ($)

Use the method of simple exponential smoothing, with a smoothing constant of , to obtain forecasts of the price of gold in the next four years. Graph the observed time series and the forecasts.


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Читайте в этой же книге: Sample size determination for the estimation of proportion | Exercises | Price index for a single item (Simple index number) | Unweighted aggregate price index | A weighted aggregate price index | A weighted aggregate quantity index | Deflating a series by price indexes | The runs test for the small sample sizes | The run test for the large sample sizes | Moving averages |
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Exponential smoothing| Double exponential smoothing

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