Freight

There are a number of key assumptions underlying freight operating costs:

(i) the amount of money which should be set aside for infrastructure

maintenance;

(ii) the train size required to transport the goods in question; and

(iii) the round‐trip time and wagon utilisation efficiency.

The infrastructure maintenance contribution might, as an order of magnitude, be 1% of the capital value i.e. 500m birr p.a. in total. Although less than this may need to be spent in early years, it is important that these monies are ring‐fenced so that, when major replacements are required, sufficient money has been set aside to pay for them, and the capability of the railway is not diminished e.g. through speed restrictions.

It should be noted that this amount is quite separate from any desire to repay the capital, which might be possible if annual profits (after the infrastructure maintenance contribution) were 10% of the construction costs of (say) 50 billion birr.

Train size will vary considerably between flows. However, it is also necessary to take into consideration network characteristics, notably gradients, which affect freight traffic. With a number of 2% gradients on the proposed NRNE network, it may be sensible to keep train lengths/weights shorter than some of those seen in other countries, to ensure that speeds are maintained without the requirement to use multiple locomotives. However, analysis indicates that trains of up to 2000t gross weight should be manageable with 6000hp locomotives, provided that the gradients do not continue for more than about 15kms, which is generally the case.

For bulk traffic (such as stone from the proposed major quarry near Adama), the use of 100‐ tonne gross tare weight wagons able to carry 75 tonnes of product maintains weights within the 25‐tonne axle load. A 20‐wagon train could carry 1500 tonnes of product, but terminal facilities would be needed to unload these wagons, with sufficient space for a storage stockpile. Loading

from overhead hoppers into wagons with bottom discharge facilities would make for the most efficient operation. For smaller flows and/or terminals (such as to Konso), bogie box wagons would need to be emptied by crane & bucket.

For general import and export traffic, however, manufactured products are a primary constituent and these are often both lighter and containerised; volume, rather than weight, is likely to be the limiting factor. Even getting three 20‐foot containers on a 60‐foot wagon is unlikely to get more than 50 tonnes of goods per wagon. At least a 30‐wagon train is therefore likely to be needed to carry 1500 tonnes, although of course the flat wagons used do not weigh as much as 25 tonnes empty. The 30‐wagon train will be approx. 600m long.

As an overall figure, then, it can be assumed that import/export trains weigh 2000t and carry 1500t of goods, which implies that 666 freight trains are needed to carry 1m tonnes of product; this equates to broadly two per day. Over the entire distance to Mombasa, about 2.5 million train‐kms are expected p.a,; about 1.1m of this is within Ethiopia.

Assuming that freight trains cost £60/train mile to operate, costs are about 240million birr p.a. on the section of route within Ethiopia. However, if rates for freight traffic on this line are 0.4‐ 0.5 birr/tonne‐km, then revenues should also reach around 260 million birr p.a. From this must be subtracted a contribution towards infrastructure maintenance costs of around 15 million birr, so the genuine profit is relatively small and does not make a significant contribution to repaying the capital cost. Moreover, this contribution to maintenance is quite inadequate for the length of route involved.

Wagonload traffic, or that in part trainloads, are generally less efficient, although there can be possibilities for profitable operation. One particular example is the chemical traffic between Ziway and Addis, where three products (caustic soda, quicklime and magnesium oxide) are all produced in relatively small quantities (c. 4000 tonnes p.a. each) for industrial use. However, it would be possible to combine a few wagons of each into one train; as all the wagons would be travelling from Ziway to Addis, shunting would not be necessary.

However, sometimes wagon utilisation is so poor that the railway may choose to reject traffic. For instance, the Ziway chemical traffic would only require one trainload per month, which would make it commercially‐unattractive if there was no other use for these specialist wagons. As some caustic soda is imported, there may be potential for using these wagons on occasional trains to Djibouti (perhaps by adding these to the back of some other train), but this traffic has not been assumed for now, because it is not clear whether it is commercially‐viable.

Profitability:

As noted above, commercial traffic planning is at an early stage, with demand being built up on an industry‐by‐industry flow‐by‐flow basis. Traffics identified so far, with provisional operating costs, revenues, infrastructure maintenance contributions and profit margins, are as follows:

	Qty	Op Costs	Revenues	Maint contribn	Profit
Traffic Type	m t p.a.	m birr p.a.	m birr p.a.	m birr p.a.	m birr p.a.
Flows identified to date:
Djibouti‐Shas/AM oil	0.1
Adama‐Konso stone	0.05
Kenya‐Shash conts
Total for Moyale line	1.05	266	510	43	201
To this should be added passenger traffic
AA – Konso					‐280

Therefore, it can be seen that currently‐identified traffics do not, in total, provide a positive financial case for this line. Moreover, the required level of maintenance needed to keep the infrastructure in good condition is probably rather nearer to 500m birr p.a. than 160m, so this low level of traffic does not give a sustainable railway. However, as additional freight traffics are identified (which may include, for instance, agricultural traffic from Weyto), and as assumptions about economic growth are quantified, the commercial performance of the line will be improved. It is hoped that (especially over time) this will reach a level which is sustainable, as well as providing real economic benefits to Ethiopia.

Note that the costs and revenues of taken for oil traffic from Djibouti are the marginal costs and revenues to/from Mojo; these are additional costs and revenues from traffic which might nevertheless travel by rail between Djibouti and Mojo/Gelan if the Djibouti line opened before the Moyale route.

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