Preliminary Passenger Demand Forecasts

The logic of the preceding section begins to put into perspective the real potential demand for rail travel. As a first‐cut, we have assumed that only 10% of the trips on the road network would transfer to rail. On this basis and for the Addis ‐ Moyale corridor, and for the key towns only, these are summarised below (figures are daily in each direction):‐

Addis – Akaki 11700

Akaki – Debre Zeit (Bishoftu) 8100

Debre Zeit – Mojo 6000

Mojo – Shashemene 1200

Shashemene – Sodo 500

Sodo – Arba Minch 250

Arba Minch – Konso 100

Konso ‐ Weyto TBA

Konso – Yabello TBA

Yabello – Moyale TBA

The above table shows the dominance, in passenger flow terms, of the corridor between Addis and Adama/Nazret. Even the lowest value here 4400 ppdpd (passengers per direction per day) shows that an hourly service for 10 hours would, on average, carry a very‐worthwhile trainload of 440 passengers. With the peak load likely to be several times the average, it appears that peak trains might carry 1000 passengers. Closer to Addis, (i.e. from Akaki), demand is roughly double this. In the ‘greater urban’ environment around Addis, it would appear to be appropriate to offer services half‐hourly all day and perhaps every 15 minutes in the peak periods. Given that there would be other trains on this section of track, this confirms the need for a double-track railway on this section.

Provided that trains run through to Central Addis Ababa, traffic flows through to Shashemene and Awasa are significant, enabling a reasonable service to be offered; this is described in more detail in section 11.7. Although there might be political reasons for wishing occasional passenger services to run all the way to Moyale, the demand potential appears to be very low; this is exacerbated by the siting of Yabelo station about 15 kms from the town, which will make rail a very unattractive option, even when compared to existing bus services. This issue will be examined further in the detailed design feasibility, when survey information is available.

It should also be borne in mind that a railway offering regular services calling at relevant intermediate stations at advertised times will be a rather different public transport option from many of the current bus services, which are point‐to‐point in nature (i.e. do not stop intermediately), and where departures are concentrated in the early morning.

Central Statistical Agency data shows that population rose over the period 1994‐2007 by 2.6% p.a. A continuation of this trend implies population levels broadly 20% higher in 2014 than in 2007 (the date of the base data).

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