Stages of development of investment climate in Russia

To date, direct public funding of industrial and social facilities remained largely only for those cases whose significance for the country may be considered extreme. In the industrial sector, for example, it is about these investment programs such as defense, security of nuclear facilities, some of the major directions of development of transport and communications, some agro-industrial complex. The bulk of investment financing in the new environment should be ensured by the economic entities with their own and attracted funds. For Russia as a country with a "transition" is characterized by incomplete formation of the specific conditions of a functioning market economy, including investment regime conforms to the current criteria for international investment cooperation. Assessing the Russian reality from the perspective of the need to create the country's more favorable investment climate, we must recognize that complex problems to be solved in this field brings together Russia rather with developing than in industrialized countries.

In the Soviet Union in the 2 half of the 80 years the rate of gross capital formation was equal to 30-33%. In Russia, it fell to the lowest value after the default in 1999 - up to 15% and then gradually began to recover, reaching 21-22% in 2001-2003., Well below the values ​​of the Soviet period. In absolute terms the volume of investments in Russia in 2002 amounted to 2.3 trillion rub. Comparison of investment and GDP in 2000-2003 and in the Soviet period shows that investments in post-crisis 1990 recovered much more slowly than GDP.

Russia after the default of 1998 received a rating from international rating agencies at the level of default (rating of the country bankrupt by investing in very risky and not recommended). With 71 seats, it fell to 129. Then rating of Russia has been gradually rising. Stabilization of the financial and economic state of Russia led to an increase in its investment grade rating. In 2005, the international rating agency assigned Russia a higher investment grade credit rating. Since then, investment and credit rating of Russia only grow due to rapid GDP growth and foreign reserves.

The main criticisms of analysts rating agencies are connected with the Dutch disease in Russia. Russia in the first decade of the twenty-first century gets a basic income from sales of oil, gas, metal, wood abroad, that is due to export of commodities without the deep of their processing within the country. GDP growth in 2000-2008 at 6-8% per year provided, mainly the rise in prices for these commodities on world markets and, consequently, the growth of net exports, and its significant contribution to GDP, the consolidated budget of Russia, the increase in foreign reserves. At the same time, the main production engineering, in radio and electronics sector, in the information sector and other sectors with high added value, high-tech decline, stagnate. All this has led to the fact that the share of innovative Russian production does not exceed 4-5%, while the share of innovative enterprises - 5.6%. And this happens despite the presence of state concepts, strategies and programs for science and high technology. I.e., all signs long-term Dutch disease, a diagnosis which put Russia as foreign experts and national experts and analysts.

The Russian economy in recent decades has developed into an acute crisis of investment. Virtually all industry is facing a catastrophic shortage of investment resources, not only for expanded reproduction, but even to maintain the operation of existing productive capacity in good working condition. Fuel and energy complex, largely focused on export activities, is not the exception in this sense. And despite the fact that he is by nature belong exclusively to the highly capital industries. The presence in Russia, huge proven and the proven geological oil reserves, and the willingness of developed countries to diversify oil supplies and reduce dependence on Middle Eastern countries to develop new additional stable oil supply from Russia makes the oil industry last a very attractive target for foreign investment.

All the years of the transformation period of Russia's development up to 2005 dominated capital outflow from Russia, suggesting low real investment attractiveness of the country. Revenues from sales of oil and gas are very high, but they went mostly abroad. And it is also evidence of lack of investment opportunities in Russia. Private equity seeks cash to where it is less risk of loss, higher aggregate stability and higher profit margins. The situation changed in 2006 when the net outflow of capital from the private sector has become significantly positive and significant. In 2006 it was $ 42 billion, and 2007 - 82.3 billion dollars, but in 2008 the situation deteriorated again due to the global financial crisis.

However, in 2004 to 2007. was a significant outflow of state financial capital, which carried out the Bank of Russia and the Ministry of Finance (via CB). The Bank of Russia has placed securities on deposit and the major Western banks in recent years, more than $ 500 billion Bank of Russia prefers to keep a small percentage of gold reserves in Western banks in the form of deposits or government securities of U.S. and leading European countries. Explains his position Bank of Russia has a high reliability of Western banks and government securities of developed countries. However, in this case, the accumulated reserves of Russia are working on the economies of Western countries and to increase their attractiveness, rather than on the economic development of Russia. Moreover, distrust of the national banking system, the national currency - the ruble to the Russian banks and government securities, expressed in a similar form, reduces the overall investment rating of the country and its investment attractiveness. If leading financial institutions are implementing portfolio investments abroad, not domestically, then the solid foreign investors will not risk investing in the economy of this country. There are clear rules for investors (except for financial speculators): reliability of the country he evaluates the behavior of domestic investors. And if local businesses and financial institutions derive income from capital and country, region or company, then this country, region or enterprise is not credible for foreign investors.

A new trend came only in 2008. Part of the Stabilization Fund has started to place in the Russian banks to maintain their liquidity amid the global financial crisis.

One of the main indicators of investment attractiveness of the country is the level of inflation. In recent years, most developing countries and countries with economies in transition have solved their problems with inflation and reduced it to 4%. Developed countries to keep inflation below 3%, have strict policies targeting. In Russia, inflation has not been reduced to values ​​that are referred to as the economy moderates. Increased inflation in investment goods is an obstacle to investment in the real economy.

The total volume of funds accumulated by the state in 2006 exceeded $ 300 billion share of the same Investment Fund of the Government of these funds is about 0.8%.

Thus, until the mid 1980's investment activity is exclusively the domain of the state. Since then, the situation has changed: there were private investors, sharply increased the role of foreign capital. After the crisis of 1990 investment recovered much more slowly than GDP. After the default of 1998, Russia International rating bankrupt the country, investments in which it is very risky and not recommended for companies with 71 seats fell to 129. Then rating of Russia has been gradually rising, which was associated with stabilization of the financial and economic state of the Russian Federation (the rapid growth of GDP and foreign reserves). In general, the Russian economy in recent decades has developed into an acute crisis of investment. Virtually all industry is facing a catastrophic shortage of investment resources. All the years of the transformation period of Russia's development up to 2005 dominated capital outflow from Russia, suggesting low real investment attractiveness of the country. The situation changed in 2006 when the net outflow of capital from the private sector has become significantly positive and significant. But in 2008 the situation deteriorated again due to the global financial crisis.

Дата добавления: 2015-11-14