Long absences of international attention

It is not conceivable that one country can wither without affecting others, policy experts said. Technology, high-speed travel and interdependent economies make it impossible for even the most remote place to function as an island, they said.

In Colombia, the lack of a strong legal system, drug trafficking, energy problems, kidnappings and bombings can create economic shock waves that ripple in places such as Brazil, Ecuador and Peru, said Julia Sweig, senior fellow and deputy director of Council on Foreign Relations’ Latin America Program.

Political problems in Venezuela have raised international concerns because of that South American nation’s role as one of the world’s leading oil suppliers. The tensions for example, have prompted the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to increase production to mitigate a shortfall in supply.

Since tensions broke out in the African nation of Burundi in 1993, more than 200,000 people have been killed, Helton said and hundreds of thousands more have been displaced. “Burundi could evolve into a genocide without too much imagining”, he said.

The concern for the Balkans is that the economy could slip further into criminalized activity where there already is growing poverty and trafficking in people. The Philippines represents a potential harbor for the terrorists given the presence of Abu Sayyaf, a radical Islamic group.

The conflict over Kashmir has raised the specter of nuclear conflict. Pakistan and

India – two nuclear powers – both claim the region, an area with ambiguous ownership ever since the partition of British holdings in South Asia during the last century.

“The Indian government has been pretty clear on no first use [of nuclear weapons]”, said Radha Kumar, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “However, I don’t understand where their confidence comes from that Pakistan will never use them … Most of the U.S. intelligence was that Pakistan had gone a long way down the road to deployment”.

Most regions in conflict suffer from long absences of international attention until overwhelming bloodshed or combat renews interest, Helton said, adding that the cycle of atrocity, shock, should be a wake-up call to seek lasting solutions.

“The effort to sort of disregard those events has a short-term advantage, but over the long term, it is terribly destabilizing”, he said. “To the extent that we have a world in surprise after surprise indicates there’s something lacking in our general world order”.

In his comments at the United Nations in January, U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan expressed optimism and said these conflicts across the globe represent opportunities for the international community to work toward peace.

“Nations working together can make a difference. Nations upholding the rule of law can advance the cause of a fairer world”, he said. “Yes, the world is a messy place. But the instruments are there to deal with these problems”.

Text 2.2 War on Iraq begins

BBC News: Thursday, 20 March, 2003, 04:48 GMT

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