Wearing thin

It is a measure of how inured Pakistanis have become to violence that it takes an especially cruel attack to provoke much debate. This week saw two. In the first, on November 2nd, a suicide bomber killed at least 60 people, mostly Pakistani tourists leaving a ceremony performed by soldiers on the border with India. He struck in a car park near the main arena.

Given the location, Indians asked if his intention had been a cross-border attack. More likely the militants—three rival groups claimed responsibility—wanted a target in Punjab, home to much of Pakistan’s political and military elites. It was the first big terrorist strike since the army began operations against militants in North Waziristan in June. Many are braced for more attacks. Elsewhere in Punjab came a smaller, but also horrific, assault. Lawlessness and religious bigotry are becoming frighteningly common.

Both attacks raise doubts about the ability of the Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, to rule a stable Pakistan. He swept to office with a big mandate, winning 126 of 272 contested seats in parliament in May 2013, making him the most powerful civilian leader for decades. Now he is diminished. Even close supporters fret that his main achievement will be the modest one of keeping himself in the job.

Three problems weigh him down. First, failure on economic and social matters. Inflation, electricity brownouts and the absence of free-market reforms mean incomes are hardly rising and growth is elusive. A wealthy ex-backer says he is disillusioned by Mr. Sharif’s incompetence as a manager. The prime minister is prone to wasteful populism: the dishing out of laptops and a part-built “metro bus” project linking Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Polio experts condemn his government’s feeble efforts against the disease given that Pakistan is home to four-fifths of all polio cases.

That led to the worst violence in a decade. Matters might ease after Mr. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party has contested assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir in December. Otherwise Mr. Sharif’s olive branch will remain spurned. Third, Mr. Sharif has been hurt by months of protests led by Imran Khan, a demagogic ex-cricketer. These had fallen quiet, but Mr. Khan pledges a big march on November 30th in Islamabad. He wants to force Mr. Sharif out in favor of new elections or rule either by army-backed technocrats, or himself. Though Mr. Sharif should hang on—most in parliament support him and the army looks unready to suspend democracy—Mr. Khan is a distraction. A year ago many who backed Mr. Sharif would have picked Mr. Khan as a second choice, but no longer. He is charismatic, but shows little capacity for compromise, essential for influence in a parliamentary system.

Nonetheless Mr. Khan weakens his rival, especially in dealing with the army. Early in office, says one person close to the prime minister, Mr. Sharif would not consult the army on any policy. As recently as May, say foreign-policy advisers, Mr. Sharif decided alone that he would attend Mr. Modi’s inauguration. And Mr. Sharif insisted on prosecuting Pervez Musharraf, a former dictator on trial for treason.

Such dominance is gone. “The army has gained as Nawaz is weaker” sums up Hasan Askari-Rizvi, a security analyst in Lahore. And he may get weaker still when the special court trying Mr. Musharraf rules, on November 21st, whether other defendants— senior army men—should also be tried. If it does, the “army will hit the roof”, says a political commentator.

Can Mr. Sharif avoid an open rift with the army? He insists the trial will go ahead and resists giving up on running foreign and security policies—though he must now negotiate on these with the army’s leaders. Yet with both the court hearing and Mr. Khan’s new protests due within weeks, November will be a trying month. Mere survival will be an achievement.

NOVEMBER 8TH-14TH 2014

Дата добавления: 2015-10-16