Gains in Real Wages

Nature of Expansion

"Despite layoffs and downsizing by corporations and government, a substantial group of workers hold stable jobs," said the chief author of the report. "What seems like higher instability may actually reflect the greater number of jobs that younger workers must hold before finding a permanent one."

The question of job tenure may seem arcane but it lies at the center of the controversy over the nature of the current economic expansion. Even in the U.S., where the number of jobs is dwindling, they say thisexplains the widespread perception of economic insecurity

But data suggest this perception is flawed. Economists in the U.S. generally have found no significant declines in job-tenure rates. "You can't say we've gone from an economy of lifetime jobs to one with day-to-day jobs," said David Neumark, an economist at University of Michigan.

A widely cited study last year by Princeton University found that 20% of all U.S. workers between the ages of 45 and 54 say they have worked more than 20 years for the same employer. The percentage was the same in 1973.

In Europe, the picture is similar, according to the ILOstudy, which appears to be the first to compare job-tenure rates across countries. In Australia, based on current data, one-quarter of working men have been with the same employer for at least ten years. In Canada, the figure is 27%. In France, the figure is 38.7%. In Germany (excluding what was formerly East Germany), the figure is 40.7%, in Spain – 36%.

Gains in Real Wages

One reason for job stability in Europe could be that many large employers, under pressure from global competition, arc only now shiftingproduction to low-wage countries and scaling back middle-management positions, steps that seem likely to result in some layoffs. But over-all, the ILO found that "tenure does seem to be at least stable, or even increasing, over time."

For those without a job, however, the European data aren't reassuring. The ILO found that nations that are members of the European Union saw unemployment rise last year to an average of 11.3%. In Eastern and Central Europe, meanwhile, unemployment rates fell slightly but remained at 11.6% or more in Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovenia and Slovakia. In Russia and some other former Soviet republics, unemployment rose.

On the plus side, the ILO found solid gains in real wages last year among many countries of the former Eastern bloc, with the Czech Republic posting a rise of 7.8%; Romania, 21.8%, and Lithuania, 10%. But Bulgaria and Hungary saw real wage declines of 19% and 10%, respectively.

Figures on joblessness in most developing countries weren't up-to-date, the ILO said.

G.Zachary ("Wall Street Journal Europe ")

Комментарии employee tenure – непрерывный стаж;

layoffs and downsizing – увольнения и сокращения:

arcane = understood by only few;

dwindling = falling, diminishing;

perception = approach;

flawed = incorrect;

to scale back - to cut, reduce gradually;

posting – registering;

real wage; cp. take-home pay («чистыми»).

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