Macroeconomic misbalance. Cyclic fluctuations of macroeconomics.

Sharp changes of structure can lead to the deep consequences covering both national, and the international economic relations. The direction and extent of change of set of the indicators characterizing development of a national economy, is called an economic environment.

The period between two identical conditions of an economic environment is called a business cycle.

Any cycle is characterized by the following principles:

- existence of fluctuations of a level of production

- fluctuations are characterized by frequency, repeatability.

Fluctuations is a change of positive dynamics, that is increase in production, negative dynamics. Economists investigating a problem of cyclic development of economy, came to a conclusion that the business cycle includes 4 phases:

1.crisis (recession, recession, compression)

2.depression

3.revival

4.rise (expansion)

In structure of a cycle there is the highest (peak) and the lowest points of activity and phases of recession (recession) and lifting (expansion). The national income grows in a lifting phase from year to year, unemployment is reduced, investments and the size of the real capital grow. The phase of lifting comes to an end with boom at which there is an ultrahigh employment and an overload of capacities; price level, the rate of salary and percent rate are very high. Inevitable consequence of boom is crisis when increase in production is replaced by its falling. The phase of crisis is followed by a depression. At this stage the national income continues to decrease, and unemployment increases. After a while the depression is replaced by a revival phase.

Depending on that economic parameters values change during a cycle, they are divided into pro-cyclic, countercyclic and acyclic.

Pro-cyclic are the parameters which values increase in a phase of lifting, and decrease in a phase of recession. These parameters are: cumulative output, utilization of capacity, speed of the money circulation, overall price level, etc.

Countercyclic are the indicators which value increase during recession, and decrease during lifting. (unemployment rate, number of bankruptcies, sizes of production stocks of ready goods)

Parameters, dynamics of which doesn't find connection with phases of economic volume (export volume) are call acyclic.

According to the duration of course there are the following types of cycles:

1. Long cycles (Kondratyev's cycles), their duration is 40-60 years. Transition from one wave to another means the real revolutionary change in society development. It is characterized by change of technical base in the field of education.

2. Intermediate-term cycles (industrial cycles), duration is 8-12 years. The reasons are renewal of fixed capital in the sphere of productions.

3. Short-term (Kitchin's cycles), duration of these cycles is 2-4 years. Short cycles are connected with balance restoration in the consumer market.

Unemployment and its forms.

Unemployment in real economic life acts as excess of supply of labor over demand. It develops in cyclic, frictional and structural forms.

Cyclic unemployment is connected with growth and production falling. Frictional unemployment is connected with voluntary transition of workers from one work on another. Structural unemployment is caused by discrepancy of structure of supply and demand of labor. Economists mark out also natural unemployment which includes frictional and structural unemployment. The natural standard of unemployment is the share of the unemployed corresponding to an expedient full employment level in economy.

The main reasons for existence of natural unemployment are:

- increases in time at job searches in existing conditions of system of insurance on unemployment. Payment of unemployment benefits relatively reduces incentives to fast employment.

- the rigidity of a salary caused by legislative establishment of a minimum of a salary is higher equilibrium, level fixing.

At definition of number of the unemployed three criteria are used:

1.absence of work

2.search of work

3.readiness to start work.

The cumulative labor is a part of the population of the country. Two groups of persons are excluded from all population of the country:

1.persons who do not reach 16 years, and also being in specialized institutions (psychiatric hospitals, correctional institutions, etc.)

2. the persons who quit from the ranks of working people, including the adults who potentially have opportunity to work, but for some reasons do not work and do not look for work (housewives, pupils, pensioners)

The logical continuation of the analysis of a form of unemployment is the characteristic of its structure on the following signs:

1. according to the sex

2.according to the age

3.according to social groups

4.according to an education level

Inflation

Inflation expresses long-term process of decrease in purchasing power of money. The process opposite to inflation, is called as a deflation. and delay of rates of inflation is disinflation.

The reasons of inflation are diverse: discrepancy of monetary demand and commodity weight: deficiency of the state budget, the excessive investment, the advancing growth of a salary in comparison with labor productivity growth, etc. They can be as the internal, caused by deformations of structure of national economy, and external (wars, revolutions, natural cataclysms).

Economists point out two types of inflation: inflation of demand and supply inflation. Inflation of demand is generated by excess of cumulative demand, and inflation of expenses results from increase of earnings (pressure of trade unions, requirements of miners) or owing to raw materials rising in price and fuel rise in price.

Depending on growth rate of the prices inflation can be: creeping (from 1 to 10%), galloping (from 10 to 200%) and a hyperinflation (over 200%). This criterion is rather conditional.

Depending on depth of state regulation of economy inflation can proceed in obvious (in the conditions of free prices) or hidden (at deficiency of goods) form.

Consequences of inflation are diverse and inconsistent: wealth redistribution between various groups of society: decrease in the real income of the population: depreciation of savings of the population: loss of producers’ interest in creation of qualitative goods: strengthening of disproportions in economy.

Control questions:

1. What is Business cycle?

2. What are the principles of Business cycle?

3. What are the four phases of Business cycle?

4. What are the types of cycles?

5. What is unemployment?

6. What are the main reasons for existence of natural unemployment?

7. What is inflation?

Сабақ 12.

Дата добавления: 2015-08-20