Of people think that robots can be a reason for reducing workplaces on labour market.

Nevertheless, JP Rangaswami, chief scientist for Salesforce.com, revealed a number of reasons for his belief that automation will not be a net displacer of jobs in the next decade: “Some classes of jobs will be handed over to the ‘immigrants’ of AI and Robotics, but more will have been generated in creative and curating activities as demand for their services grows exponentially while barriers to entry continue to fall. For many classes of jobs, robots will continue to be poor labor substitutes.” (Smith, Aaron, and Janna Anderson).

Also, in the recent years number of movies about robotics and their impacts on the future society has been increased for high rate. For instance, according to the scenario of the film called “Surrogates”, Surrogates is set in the year 2054, when everyone stays at home and sends beautiful android versions of themselves out into the world. The main meaning of the movie is that human beings are degrading, and social relationships among humans are reduced only to virtual meetings in the real world through managed robotic surrogates. It’s the ultimate form of telepresence, and futurist Dr. James Canton believes it could happen in the next decade or so (Saenz, Aaron).

Besides, Dr Ian Yeoman, who has a PhD in Management Science from Napier University, Edinburgh and BSc in Catering Systems from Sheffield City Polytechnic, after watching the film “I, Robot” (2004), stated that dependence on technology will grow in the future through reduced human interaction as robots replace mankind, new professions emerge and our lives are extended through medical discovery (Yeoman, Ian).

However, to my mind many people do not realize the importance of the considering this topic. This research is focused on the reasons why modern society should pay attention at this problem, in other words with what changes will the labourer robots come up. If the effects are found, then the ways of effectively solving the negative influences of the machinery will be worked out.

It is important to state my personal interest in the research as I wanted to know more about the current and the future position of robots in the world job market. Also, this theme piqued my interest, as I wanted to identify the opinion of the modern people about this situation. Moreover, the main reason is that my previous project from Global Perspectives subject was about the AI and its impact to the humans’ lifestyles, and I wanted to continue this research.

2. Context

Artificial intelligence is an area of computer science that emphasizes the creation of intelligent machines that work and react like humans (Janssen, Cory).John McCarthy, the father of AI, first coined the term in 1956, when he held his first conference on this subject. Nevertheless, the journey to understand if computers can truly think began much before that. Alan Turing conceived of a universal Turing machine that could mimic the operation of any other computing machine. However, he also recognized that there exist certain kinds of calculations that no technology could perform (Stottler Henke Associates, Inc.).

According to Arturo Baroncelli, president of the International Federation of Robotics Statistical Department, the previous year was the most successful in the industrial robot market, as compared to 2012 number of robots that had been sold worldwide raised to 12 percent. In addition, the continued increase in the industrial robot sales is expected in the next years. Moreover, number of manufactured robot orders went up not only in developed countries such as Germany, Japan, the USA and China, but also in Africa countries and Mexico. Owing to the given data there is no doubt that vast variety of people all over the world, independently on the development level of their country, from the last several years started to buy industrial robots in large quantities and are going to continue doing it, in spite of the high cost of these machines. The source is popular publication and it is reputable in this discipline, as it gives statistical data with details from some 40 countries. Additionally, the publication reveals global statistics on industrial and service robots in the form of tables and bar charts that provides effective comparison among various countries (The International Federation of Robotics Statistical Department).

Furthermore, there had been conducted a study by The University of Oxford's Dr. Michael A. Osborne and Dr. Carl Benedikt Frey of Oxford Martin School, whose results affirm that the machinery begins to be widespread in the contemporary labour market. The research entitled “ The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation?’” and indicates the tendency of computers, which take manifold cognitive tasks due to the availability of big data. Besides, according to the output of the study, 47 percent of the USA jobs could be computerized within one or two decades, and it highlights that robots are going to be highly contributed in the world job market, as America is leader country, whose economic policy has enormous impact on other various countries. Owing to the suggestion of the study, there will be two waves of computerization:

v Superseding machines for people in logistics, transportation, administrative and office support;

v Influencing jobs, which are depending on engineers’ well solving computer issues due to human social intelligence and creativity.

In addition, there given a prediction, according to which robots will replace humans in low-wage and low-risk jobs in the near future. The source provides eye-catching sketch, graph, and table, which help to clearly understand the quantitative data presented in the document. Moreover, it includes several quotes of researchers, who conducted the study, that are used in order to support to the credibility of the information. The reference to the document, from which this data had been taken, is provided (Sandhana, Lakshmi).

When looking at the outcomes of the research made by Peter Gorle and Andrew Clive, there is no doubt that robots are important aspects of the job market. As revealed in the source, almost in all six considered countries, except Japan, there was an overall rise in employment, due to that his level of robotics use has almost doubled in the eight years. Overall, due to robotics, 2 to 3 million jobs created in world manufacturing; robots from 2011 until 2016 will create 700,000 to 1 million new working places.

Moreover, authors mentioned several reasons, why humans need these devices as workers. Most of them are appearing because of humans cannot work in certain cases, such as

● Bad working conditions,

● Surge of ageing population worldwide,

● Globalisation of the market,

● Growing speed of technological development

and so on.

The document provides the data about the positive impacts of industrial robots on employment. There are manifold information in the forms of tables, bar charts and diagrams. Additionally, the publisher is reputable in this discipline, and the tone of writing is precise (METRA MARTECH).

Besides, the survey taken by Ernst & Young organisation, which is a global leader in assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services, indicates that artificial intelligence is job creator, not destroyer, and over half (51%) of the world’s top entrepreneurs concur that investments made in IT have changed their workforce. In fact, 81% of entrepreneurs in the Americas, Asia-Pacific and EMEIA found that the investment increased their labor resources by around 13%. It is clear that computers accelerate higher productivity and efficiency (70%), improves quality (58%), provides quicker access to data and information (54%), as well as drives admittance to new markets (50%). Furthermore, computers have improved cost competitiveness for those entrepreneurs questioned (by 53%) and made their existing manpower more mobile (by 44%). Besides, the source provides the whole report of conducting survey, and it has no bias in writing this data. The study population is representative, as entrepreneurs are business makers, whose daily job is directly related to the economy of their country (Ernst & Young organisation).

Despite of these advantages, modern scientists and economists claim that in the future automation may cause economic collapse, as the machines work instead of humans. As an example, there can be taken an article written by Judith Aquino in American popular website nbcnews.com. The document reveals nine jobs that humans may lose to robots in the near future: Pharmacists, Lawyers and paralegals, Drivers, Astronauts, Store clerks, Soldiers, Babysitters, Rescuers, Sportswriters and other reporters. According to the data, the UCSF Medical Center recently launched an automated, robotics-controlled pharmacy at two UCSF hospitals, which was phased in over the past year, so far has prepared 350,000 doses of medication without error. In addition, there is given robots with various functions that will replace certain types of working places. For example, Hello Kitty robot, which is perfect for whoever does not have a lot time to stay with the child; MAARS (Modular Advanced Armed Robotic System), made by Foster-Miller, which has provided armed robots in Iraq. The data provided is straightly related to the considering topic, as identifying definite jobs that are mostly going to be replaced by AI is useful for that to know how actual is the problem in the contemporary society. Moreover, the certain types of jobs come from different fields, and the author provided with manifold quotes of reputable magazines, newspapers and people having joint work with robots (Aquino, Judith).

Therefore, there is vast variety in the aspects of using robots in the future, as the interference of machines in the employment leads to different consequences.

3.Aims

The purpose of the project was to identify advantages and disadvantages of the robots’ interference in world job market and to make clear conclusion about the overall effect of the automation on employment. The goal was to find out what local people know about the issue and what they recommend to prevent problems that will arise from the rapid growth of artificial intelligence.

Thus main questions of the investigation were:

1. To what extent are people aware of the global issue of expansion of the robots?

2. What are the ways of avoiding the drawbacks of an intervention of the automation in the labour market?

3. For what reasons should human beings need to increase the number of labourer robots?

4. What are the negative sides of using AI in the modern world?

The outputs of the research were focused on the gaining the understanding of the public about the issue of the effects of robotics on employment and the actions after taking which the problem can be solved.

4. Method

Background investigation on the Internet was conducted at first to get general information about the topic. As the problem of the upsurge in robots’ quantity is globally important, there was vast variety of data available related to the considering issue. In addition, all of the sources were updated. Also some information was taken from official web pages of popular statistics departments and organisations (e.g. The International Federation of Robotics Statistical Department, Ernst & Young Organisation). Moreover, what makes the outcomes of the studies included into the research to be obviously credible is that these articles had been posted on several famed websites and even some of them had been published in newspapers. Therefore, they had been checked several times before revealing. The content of the ‘Context’ section of this report thus reflects this approach.

The primary research for the project will be an online survey. Particularly I am going to use surveymonkey.com. There are several factors that motivated me to make such decision:

o Firstly, creating a questionnaire via the Internet is faster, as only what is needed to do is to register to the website, put the questions and corresponding answers on the ready template. Maximum wasted time is 10 minutes.

o Secondly, majority of online surveys are free.

o Thirdly, the URL of the online questionnaire can be sent easily to the email addresses, thus there is no need to search the students throughout the school and colleges.

o Fourth reason is that such method provides with big sample size, owing to that manifold people can be surveyed.

o Fifth one is that it is effective in making calculations than human himself, due to that humans can easily make mistakes in calculations.

o Sixth reason is that participants cannot skip the questions. It means that people will answer all the questions, will not leave some of them.

o Also it demonstrates the output in the forms of the various charts and diagrams that make the results more clear.

Nevertheless, it is important to note that if person has not access to the Internet, then he/she is not able to make an online survey.

It is going to be surveyed 12^th grade students of Nazarbayev intellectual school and students of colleges and universities in Semey city. The reason of choosing this sample is that it is commonly known that young people and people in adolescence are more aware of the latest news and inventions, as they are almost always in the know. Besides, they often write essays, course works and the abstracts related to the considering topic. Participants will be from Semey city, as after exploring the problem from global side, it is necessary to study the topic locally.

A questionnaire consists of multiple choice and essay box questions, as participants can have different answers to the question and give full answer with explanation.

The information will be stored in my account in the website surveymonkey.com. In order to keep confidentiality the results will be saved in flash driver and Google Disk.

The data gathered was analysed and applied to the research questions. These results are described below.

5. Results

Secondary research was very beneficial for the exploration the topic. The output of the background investigation via the Internet is revealed in the “Context’ section.

To summarise main findings, predictions of last century’s scientists have been confirmed, as the number of robots is rapidly increasing. According to the outcomes of the modern experts’ studies by years the quantity of robots will rise. Thus there will be demonstrated the upsurge in the unemployment rate in certain job fields, as plenty of jobs are going to disappear.

The results from the questionnaire were very useful. The analysis of data for each question is set out in Appendix 2. The main findings from the questionnaire can be summarised as:

§ More than two thirds of people know what artificial intelligence is.

§ Boys are more aware than girls about the artificial intelligence.

§ Most of respondents (30.95% (13 respondents)) believe that development of robotics affects in high levels on all given spheres.

§ Majority of participants claim that human beings need robots (61.9%).

§ As expected, robots are mostly beneficial for that they make everyday life easier (6 people).

§ It is difficult to state whether young people want to work with robots, as their proportions are very similar (20-answered “Yes”, 22- answered “No”).

of people think that robots can be a reason for reducing workplaces on labour market.

§ Common reason for this is that robots work for free (6 respondents).

Дата добавления: 2015-08-18