Not development, but reducing of programs.

As of January 1, 1996 in the world worked 434 commercial reactors with general capacity 340.282 MW. In comparison with 1990, that is for six years the quantity of reactors has increased only on nine, and integral capacity of the nuclear power plants has increased only for 3 percents. In total part of “atomic energy” in system of world production of electrical power compounded 17 %.

In addition to the working nuclear power plants five reactors have not been set in operation yet, but have already obtained a license; four reactors have reached criticality, but did not produce the electric power in commercial scales. 34 reactors were in stage of construction: in Argentina (1), Brazil (1), China (2), Czech (2), France (4), India (4), Iran (1), Japan (4), South Korea (5), Pakistan (1), Romania (1), Slovakia (2), Russia (2), Ukraine (2). In 1995 have started restoration of the nuclear power plant in Armenia. Within 1996 began construction of three more reactors - two in China and one – in Japan. In other advanced states of Europe and Canada construction of the nuclear power plant was not conducted. In the USA construction of the last reactor started in 1972, and was finished in 1996[14], [15].

In 1974 IAEA predicted, that by year 2000 in the world will be built nuclear power plants with integral capacity of 4.450.000 MW. Annually 171 reactor unit should be commissioned on the average. However, in 1973-1975, i.e. in the season of petroleum crisis and further, number of orders for construction of the nuclear power plant begin to reduce intensively, and the quantity of reactors set into operation has sharply decreased [43] (Figs. 6). In terms since 1991 to 1995 (or for five years) it is set into operation only 29 reactors, i.e. six reactors annually. In the term since 1996 to 1998 it is constructed 12 (already 4 annually), and almost as much is decommissioned (11 reactors).

On Figs. 6 except for total number of reactors set into operation is also presented the quantity of operating reactors. Since 1989 years growth of number of working reactors is practically stopped, though some of reactors nevertheless continue to be commissioned. It speaks that the intensive decommission of reactors starts. On 1998 on data of IAEA 87 reactors have been stopped

.Figs 6. Dynamics of change of number of the newly set into operation reactors, operating and decommissioned reactors and going to be decommissioned reactors because of exhaustion of serviceable life of 30 years.

On the same of Figs. 6, one more curve is introduced. It ranges below an axis of time, as displays number of the stopped reactors (up to 1998) and reactors, going to be decommissioned because of exhaustion of serviceable life of 30 years. Among the first reactors, which were going to be decommission since 1998, the reactors which have been started up after 1968. Already in 2016 year the number of such reactors will be 400, and in 2022 year – 500. Here is the main question: what to do with these reactors?

First, till now there were only slight attempts of disassembly of the stopped reactors. Dream of atomic lobbyists about so-called to “green lawn” on the place of stopped reactor, alas, remains the dream which not come true.

It is not obviously possible to name though with any degree of reliance the cost of disassembly and utilization of a reactor. However, the majority of explorers concludes, that cost of disassembly of reactor will appear not less than cost of its construction. Today there are no more exact data, because there is no required experience. However, we in fact are not calculating the expense budget; we want to evaluate those charges, which will be connected to decommission of the indicated reactors. In addition, on these calculations already to year 2014 owners of reactors should obtain about two billions dollars (2.000.000.000.000), and for the following eight years – half more billion. To great happiness, we are not going to spent so much money: simply Belarusian atomic lobbyists had no time to build NPP. In addition, you will not envy to other countries, especially to the “honorary members” of IAEA. Even for the richest countries of the world, such costs can appear excessive.

Probably, it already has reached the management of the majority of leading countries. Whether not therefore today construction of any minimum number of reactors is sustained at the expense of less developed countries and in territories with a conflict situation? Among them - India, Pakistan, Northern Korea, Argentina, Brazil, Iran, Turkey. Two of these countries have already reached the strategic goal: have created and have tested nuclear weapons, and in Northern Boreal Korea are already done declarations for readiness of nuclear weapons, they already tested carrier rocket for such weapons. That is the answer to the question: what for atomic reactors are necessary for these countries! In the advanced countries or, more precisely, in the countries for a long time having the atomic weapons, the attitude to construction of the nuclear power plant is completely different, many of the existing NPPs which have not finished their service life, are decommissioned, because of their technical imperfection. In many countries of the world orders for new construction are annulled.

And in this situation the words of the minister of Atomic energy of Russia mister Rumjantsev told in interview to journalist Vitaly Golovachyov sound thoughtless [98]: “In the United States – 104 power reactors, in Russia – only 30. It is necessary to us to repair an omission“.

How do you like such “cleverest” conclusion? America has collapsed all the programs of construction of NPPs, having recognized this direction of energy unreasonable and hazardous, and mister Rumjantsev demands from Russia “to repair an omission”. Somehow, we had a thought of the certain virus of mental disorder, which walks, at the highest levels of the atomic ministry of Russia. However, it was difficult for us even to assume, that the situation has gone so far. Here it is impossible without thorough medical examination: whether it is possible to admit to so hazardous nuclear technologies to the people with such pathology?

In an assessment of situation with atomic energy, dynamics of change of a part of the nuclear power plant in general production of the electric power in the world is rather interesting. The data for the term since 1960 are introduced on Figs. 7.

Figs. 7. The part of the electric power produced by the nuclear power plants in production (on IAEA data and on forecasts).

This dependence is drawn on materials of IAEA Reports [15], [44], [45]. If until 1985-87 rather essential growth of the part of NPP in total amount of production of the electric power in the world, in the subsequent years the growth rate has sharply reduced. The maximum value in 17,1 percents the part of the nuclear power plant in production of the electric power has reached in 1990-95 years. Already to 1997 this value reduced up to 16,3 percents. And the forecast made by IAEA is interesting. According to this forecast the part of the electric power produced by the nuclear power plant, in 2000 year will reduce to 15 percents, and in 2010 – up to 13 percents [45]. This organization has no optimism for the future perspective: in 2020 even optimistic forecast of IAEA gives 12 percents, and on pessimistic forecast, that is more real, to 8,9 percents (almost in 2 times below the greatest achieved level). There is also one more forecast [40]. Conducting the comparative analysis of global fuel perspectives, authors of the indicated work have shown, that at resistant growth of gas in general consumption of fuel resources is prognosticated fall of a part of an atomic energy from 17 percents in 1991 down to 6,1 percents in 2010. These data also are presented on Figs. 7.

What forecasts will be justified, time will show. Till now IAEA did not succeeded in making forecasts. We shall hope that it will be the same in the future. We very would like, that the folding of atomic energy passed as active as it is possible.

It would be desirable, that the forecast of one really outstanding scientist and the expert of atomic energy, the developer of the best atomic reactors of that time academician N.A.Dollezhal will not come true. In the book intended for education of the future experts – nuclear scientists [98], in 1983 rather optimistically assessment of perspectives of atomic energy is given: “The atomic energy in the USSR and abroad has term of the rapid development. It is supposed, that by the end of the century in the global structure of fuel balance of power plants, the part of nuclear fuel will make 45 % and to 2020 – 60 %”. That is the sin to be pleased to an error of the colleague and honourable person. However, we recognized that such error sincerely pleases us. To our happiness, “rapid development” after 1995 became not so stormy, but quite fall of rates and lowering of a part of the electric power produced by NPPs. By the end of the past century instead of expected 45 % - 15 % are received and to 2020 under the forecast of IAEA, it would be only about 9 % instead of 60 %.

Figs. 8. The part of the nuclear power plants in the global production of all kinds of energy (on the data of IAEA).

While we talked only about production of the electric power. How looks the nuclear power plant in matching with global production of all kinds of power? Such data can be extracted from the materials given in The IAEA Report N 1 for 1999 [46]. The graph constructed on these data is presented on Figs. 8. As we see, up to 1984 the part of the nuclear power plant remained scanty – less than three percents. To 1987 year it reached the maximum level of 6,47 percents and further declined to 1998 down to 4,65, that is almost in 1,4 times. Naturally, that the forecast introduced on Figs. 7, it will be reflected in this characteristics: it also will drop. Also today, the part of the nuclear power plant in the global power balance is not so essential in order to frighten the world by closure of NPPs.

It is interesting, how perspectives of atomic energy of Russia look today? It is possible to answer on this question by one fragment from interview of the executive director on investments of the State concern “Rosenergoatom“ Vasily Bojko [69]: “After the big break only in the past year the first unit of the Rostov NPP has been started”. And farther: “In the long term we should start construction of one power unit annually”. The situation changed, atomic lobbyists spoke before about tens and even hundreds reactors annually, and here even one reactor annually, and “in the long term”. Similar, that even inveterate atomic lobbyist understood hopelessness of their perspective. May be it is time to them already look for other job in more perspective energy sectors?

In addition, in the world the perspective of atomic lobbyists are not joyful. Alas, attributes of folding become increasingly manifestative (see tab. 11).

Tab. 11.

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