Attitudes to democracy

The 2008-09 global economic crisis has had a

disproportionately negative impact on eastern

Europe compared with other emerging markets,

such as developing Asia and Latin America. But it is

not only in terms of national output that the crisis

has left its mark on the region. It also seems to have

reinforced a pre-existing mood of disappointment

with the experience and results of the 20-year

transition (Hoey 2011). A number of post-crisis

surveys and reports point to a further decline in life

satisfaction, support for markets and democracy and

trust in institutions.

The Eurobarometer reports published between

May 2008 and August 2011 reveal changes in public

opinion in all 27 member states and in the five

candidate countries (Croatia, Iceland, Macedonia,

Montenegro and Turkey) since the start of the crisis.

Similar trends were revealed by Gallup polls taken

before and after the crisis (2006 and 2009), and also

by the Life in Transition Surveys (LiTS) carried out

jointly by the European Bank for Reconstruction and

Development (EBRD) and the World Bank in 2006 and

2010.

The most striking findings of the LiTS 2010 was

the decline in support for democracy in central

Europe and the Balkans. In 11 transition countries,

50% of respondents or fewer express a preference

for democracy, with support being lowest in Serbia,

Latvia, Russia, Lithuania, Ukraine and Bosnia &

Hercegovina (BiH). The widespread disenchantment

with democracy in the region, especially in the richer

economies, does not necessarily reflect a hankering

for authoritarianism or a return to the communist

past. Rather, it seems to reflect the exhaustion

of contemporary political systems and a general

unfocused disillusion, apathy and disengagement.

In contrast to central Europe and the Balkans,

support for democracy has held up well or even

increased in many CIS countries. In a mirror image

of the trend in central Europe and the Balkans, in

Tajikistan, Armenia, Uzbekistan, Georgia, Azerbaijan,

Kazakhstan and Belarus, support for democracy has

risen, in some cases significantly since the previous

LiTS in 2006. It seems that in the CIS the lack of

democracy colours people’s view, and predisposes

them favourably towards democracy, while in

east-central Europe disappointment with imperfect

democracy and its functioning has led to a decline

in support for democracy. The results suggest that

there is a thirst for political freedom in the more

authoritarian CIS states, and that the democratic

struggles in the Middle East and North Africa could

yet have an impact on the transition region.

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