Democracy Index 2011. Democracy under stress

Democracy under stress

18 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2011

TM

empirical link globally between economic crises and political upheaval. Historically, economic crises

and difficulties have been associated with democratic breakthroughs, such as the sudden collapse of

seemingly stable autocratic regimes.

The role of political culture

Survey evidence suggests that the political culture in some countries is conducive to democratisation.

In many others it is not. However, even in these countries it may be wrong to overplay this factor. A

relatively small section of a population in an urban centre or centres, if sufficiently motivated and

mobilised, can carry out nationwide change.

We expect that political upheavals will indeed affect other authoritarian regimes, with some

regimes, mainly but not only in MENA, being especially vulnerable. These may not all be successful and

not all may necessarily take the form of mass popular uprisings. However, prevailing conditions appear

to suggest that there will be political challenges to autocrats in many of the world’s authoritarian

states.

The outlook for democratic transition is, however, more uncertain. As has been the case in recent

years, major reversals in democratisation have taken place before. For example, a democratisation

wave after the second world war ended with more than 20 countries subsequently sliding back to

authoritarianism. That sort of rollback has not occurred recently. Democracy as a value retains strong

universal appeal worldwide. Despite setbacks and overall stagnation, surveys show that most people

in most places still want democracy. Trends such as globalisation, increasing education and expanding

middle classes tend to favour the organic development of democracy.

But nobody would have predicted that a new trend would happen so soon and start in what looked

like the most inhospitable environment possible, in a MENA state, or that even the short-term outlook

for a new wave of democratisation could look so potentially promising. Democratisation in hitherto

authoritarian states will of course not mean a transition to fully-fledged, consolidated democracies.

Democracy means more than holding elections; it requires the development of a range of supportive

institutions and attitudes. Such a transformation takes a very long time. But even imperfect or flawed

democracies would be far better than authoritarianism.

Дата добавления: 2015-09-04