Climate change

10.1 Read the text and explain how shifting seasons threaten plants, birds and insects. What do scientists call for? Do they urge action to counter global warming?

Earlier springs and later autumns: climate change sends nature awry

Ian Sample
August 26, 2006
The Guardian

Spring is arriving earlier each year as a result of climate change, the first "conclusive proof" that global warming is altering the timing of the seasons, scientists announced yesterday.

In what is believed to be the world's largest study of seasonal events, such as the flowering of plants, autumnal leaf fall and insect behaviour, scientists found that spring now arrives six to eight days earlier across Europe than in the early 1970s. Warmer temperatures have also delayed autumn, by an average of three days in the past 30 years, the scientists report.

Countries that have experienced the greatest warming saw the earliest springs, according to the study in the journal Global Change Biology. In Spain, where early spring temperatures have risen by up to 1C a decade, spring now arrives two weeks earlier. Britain is warming at a slower rate, with temperatures creeping up 1C in the past three decades.

"Not only do we clearly demonstrate change in the timing of seasons, but that change is much stronger in countries that have experienced more warming," said Tim Sparks, an environmental scientist on the study at the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology at Monks Wood near Huntingdon. Dr Sparks said the shifting seasons were already disrupting sensitive ecosystems by knocking natural processes such as pollination out of kilter.

"One of the biggest problems is that species don't adapt to warming at the same rate. So if you have a bird that feeds on an insect that relies on a certain plant for food, and any one of those responds to warming differently to the others, the whole system can break down," he said.

Scientists from 17 countries took part in the study and analysed 125,000 records and observations in Europe compiled between 1971 and 2000. The records, which covered 542 plant species and 19 animals, showed that 80% of all leafing, flowering and fruiting was now happening earlier in the year.

Annette Menzel, a co-author on the study, said: "Unlike some studies that record individual species, this is the first comprehensive examination of all available data at a continental scale, using around 550 plant species, and the timing change is clear, very clear." The study has concerned scientists because it reveals the impact on nature of fairly modest temperature rises. Projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggest that warming will increase more dramatically towards the end of the century unless serious efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are brought in.

In Britain, sensitive and already threatened species such as the Scotch argus and mountain ringlet butterflies are most likely to suffer as temperatures continue to rise. Migratory birds that winter in Africa but return to Britain to breed are faring badly because they have not adapted to the earlier springs. "It's as if they're turning up late for a meal, in the middle of the main course, when the starter has gone," said Dr Sparks.

A warmer Britain is likely to see rarer species die off as already common species expand their territories. The losses are likely to be countered partly by the arrival of birds, moths and other insects from mainland Europe. "It has the potential to be very depressing. We wanted to identify and present these results to convince people that change is already happening and we need to act now to minimise damage in the future," said Dr Sparks.

11.1 Read the text and say how climate change could change the face of British tourism in the near future?

Climate change could bring tourists to UK - report

July 28, 2006
Guardian Unlimited

Climate change could "dramatically" change the face of British tourism in the next 20 years, with European tourists flocking to the UK to escape unbearably hot continental summers, experts say.

Research shows that European tourists may choose to holiday in Britain as resorts nearer to home become too hot.

Weather changes may provide revival opportunities for northern seaside towns such as Blackpool and put new strains on roads and development in southern coastal resorts, a study in the Journal of Sustainable Tourism said.

Academic David Viner, a researcher at the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit in Norwich, produced the report after analysing the work of experts around the globe.

"The likelihood [is] that Mediterranean summers may be too hot for tourists after 2020, as a result of too much heat and water shortages," the study said.

There were "opportunities for the revival of northern European resorts, including Blackpool, in the next 20 years, as climate change and rising transport costs offer new holiday opportunities," it said.

The study added: "Climate change will impact on many holiday destinations. For many this will be problematic, for others it will produce benefits."

12.1 Read the text and sum it up. Explain why theGovernment review 'failed to address the problem'? Could renewables fill energy gap?

Climate change will reach point of no return in 20 years, says expert

Alok Jha
September 5, 2006
The Guardian

The world only has 10 years to develop and implement new technologies to generate clean electricity before climate change reaches the point of no return - something the UK government failed to appreciate in its recent energy review, according to an expert.

Speaking at the British Association festival of science in Norwich yesterday, Peter Smith, a professor of sustainable energy at the University of Nottingham, said the UK had to embark on a strategy to reduce energy use by insulating homes better and encouraging more micro-generation schemes such as solar panels.

"The scientific opinion is that we have a ceiling of 440 parts per million [ppm] of atmospheric carbon before there is a tipping point, a step change in the rate of global warming," said Professor Smith. "The rate at which we are emitting now, around 2ppm a year and rising, we could expect that that tipping point will reach us in 20 years time. That gives us 10 years to develop technologies that could start to bite into the problem."

The current level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is 380ppm.

He said the government's recent energy review had failed to address the problem and had simply reiterated two long-held assumptions: that wind power should provide 15% of electricity by 2020 and that renewable energy alone could not fill the energy gap left by the decommissioning of nuclear and the demise of fossil-fuel power stations. The solution presented was to build a new generation of nuclear power stations.

"Astonishingly, the review pays hardly any regard to the principle energy asset which this country enjoys, namely its rivers, estuaries, coastal currents and waves," said Prof Smith. "Huge amounts of energy could be harvested using existing technologies, which could meet the nuclear shortfall several times over." A tidal energy barrage across the Severn river, for example, could have a peak output of around six gigawatts, more than 10% of the country's peak demand.

"The technology is robust, simple, it's basically a water-wheel," said Prof Smith. "To say it is too innovatory, which the government has done, is rubbish."

There are several sites around Britain with similar energy potential, including the Channel Islands, he said.

According to the Energy Savings Trust, homes in the UK have the potential to provide 40% of their own electricity using micro-generation."The ultimate goal for our homes is to make them near carbon-neutral and, at best, make them net contributors of clean energy," said Prof Smith. "In the long term, a combination of demand reduction and the full complement of renewables could make the UK virtually carbon free."

But he was not optimistic that the government would make these changes voluntarily. "What will overcome [government apathy] is when there's a two-metre rise in the Thames so that the House of Commons is under water," he said. "The tragedy is that there needs to be a fairly catastrophic event to motivate politicians to take action, [so] they feel confident that the public will vote for them next time."

The Met Office believes the Thames estuary is the most vulnerable place in northern Europe to major storm surges. The existing barrage could be overwhelmed at almost any time, and estimates suggest this could cause £30bn of damage to London and the surrounding areas.

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