A reform agenda ahead

The nightmare would be for Mr Berlusconi to overtake Mr Bersani and win a majority in the Chamber of Deputies. The Senate’s regional make-up precludes him getting a majority there, so he would probably be unable to form a government; instead such a result would usher in months of uncertainty and a fresh election, all accompanied by conniptions in the markets.

The second-worst outcome would be for Mr Bersani’s coalition to win a majority in both houses. For that, the centre-left must win the Senate races in Lombardy, Campania and Sicily as well as a plurality in the chamber. Even with a double majority, Mr Bersani might try to form a coalition with Mr Monti to bolster his international standing. But he would be beholden to his own party’s left-wingers and to his far-left coalition partner, Nichi Vendola’s Left, Ecology and Freedom (SEL) party.

Mr Bersani himself has a decent record of reform as a minister under Mr Prodi. He tackled pharmacists to some effect, though he failed when it came to taxi drivers. Yet many of his supporters, including the big trade unions and his main economic adviser, Stefano Fassina, oppose further labour-market reform—indeed, they want to reverse some changes made by Mr Monti. As for Mr Vendola, he prefers to talk of splitting investment from retail banking and taxing the rich than of competitiveness and reducing unit labour costs.

A better result would thus be one in which Mr Bersani and his more left-leaning colleagues ally with Mr Monti out of necessity, not merely for show, giving the former European commissioner greater influence. For this, the right must win the Senate in Lombardy, Sicily or both, forcing Mr Bersani to lure Mr Monti into a coalition as his only route to a Senate majority. Mr d’Alimonte at LUISS university sees a dilemma: Lombards who want Mr Monti in the next government must vote for the Berlusconi coalition.

Pessimists recall that the Prodi government, which also stretched from centre-right to far left, collapsed after only two years. Yet the precedent need not be so troubling. A more united PD has replaced fissiparous left-wing parties of 2006. Mr Monti commands respect even among his leftist critics. The need for reform is more pressing now. And, although he hails from the far left, Mr Vendola was a sensible governor of Puglia, helping it to become the mainland south’s best-performing region.

It will still be a huge challenge for Mr Bersani. For the sake of Italy, and ultimately also for the sake of the euro, he must succeed. A lot is riding on the voters of Italy on February 24th and 25th. Unfortunately, they don’t seem to care much.

Дата добавления: 2015-11-14