Do Washington and Riyadh want together to bring down prices?

Oil production in the U.S. is growing at a record pace. Soon, the United States, ahead of Saudi Arabia for the extraction of raw materials, will become the world's largest oil producer. Reported by the Associated Press, referring to the U.S. oil market analysts.

According to the forecast of the Ministry of Energy (October 2012), the production of crude oil and other liquid hydrocarbons in the country next year will reach 11.4 million barrels a day, which will be a record level for the country. The current leader, Saudi Arabia, while producing 11.6 million barrels per day (2011). Russia in 2011 was producing about 10.2 million barrels per day.

According to a recent forecast by Citibank, oil production in the U.S. could reach 13-15 million barrels a day by 2020, and the northern United States (Alaska) by this time become a "new Middle East."

It seems that the campaign is aimed at a sharp and prolonged downturn in oil prices. Moreover, this scenario is developed, apparently, with the participation of Saudi Arabia. That is about the same as it was in the second half of 1980, when the temporary reduction of import Arabian, South American oil to the U.S. and its sharp "stuffing" on the world market by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have fallen off quickly prices. And with them - the economy of the USSR, Romania and Albania.

Canadian expert in world trade energy products Role Gough believes that U.S. forecasts it comes to not only increase production of oil and shale gas to be included in the growth forecasts of hydrocarbon production in the United States. As well as the possible "you print the" United States of enormous reserves of oil and petroleum products in the store (located, by the way, and in some countries of Central America).

However, in the U.S. rapidly develop and deploy cutting-edge production technology, in contrast, for example, Russia. This naturally increases the impact of any oil reservoirs, allowing hard to master, or "heavy" field (bituminous oil). The same is the case in neighboring Canada. So that the factor of growth of oil production in North America - is quite real.

It is possible that the U.S. is ready to work with Riyadh prolonged decline in oil prices. Thus, in mid-September, the U.S. supported the initiative of Saudi Arabia to reduce these prices. Namely: "... we welcome the willingness of Saudi Arabia support the needs of the market and lower prices," - the report says the White House. As an official response to the fact that September 10, 2012 Oil Minister of the Kingdom of Ali al-Naimi said: " We are concerned about the rise in oil prices. "So Saudi Arabia, he said, is going to take steps to reduce them.

Most U.S. refineries long is oriented mainly to the Arabian (Saudi oil), their technological change over to a different oil will take time. So sharp and prolonged reduction in U.S. oil imports from the Arabian peninsula can not be. Yes, by the military-political reasons, a substantial reduction in the supply of oil to the U.S. is not going to happen. Especially if Saudi Arabia, again, is planning to cut the price by growth in production and exports.

In American and Arab media there are reports that the authorities and the U.S. oil giants are exploring options partial "printing" strategic petroleum reserve and resort to the International Energy Agency to demand lower prices for oil.

And this step, as noted in a recent international conference in Moscow on the market of oil products, can lead to short-term, but a sharp rise in prices. Consequently, more weight will be their further decline?

As stated in the report of the Expert Council on Foreign Relations in New York, Blake Clayton (September 2012), "the opening of U.S. stock will lead to greater nervousness in the markets about future supplies. Expectations of future price increases can trigger their growth in the present. "

Meanwhile

"Oil" interests of Russia and Saudi Arabia are often contradictory, and the Riyadh maintains and develops cooperation with Russia. Thus, forming joint businesses, conducted business forums. Saudi Arabia increases grain imports from Russia, which is more determined by political than economic factors. In particular, in the middle of October 2012, according to the Agriculture Ministry and the Federal Customs Service, Saudi Arabia shipped 500 thousand tons of Russian barley is expected that these supplies from Russia will be increased until the end of the year.

At the same time, Riyadh is actively developing new routes for the export of oil around the Arabian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, which border Iran. Since 2012, on the initiative of Riyadh are enacted oil pipelines in the region to the ports of Yemen, Oman and the UAE, is the shortest way out of oil in the entire Arabian Peninsula, the international trading system. These routes will "draw" the Iraqi black gold. Obviously, neftepotokov growth in these areas can lead to long-term decline in world oil prices. It is unprofitable for Russia.

Saudi Arabia has pursued a carefully balanced foreign trade, particularly oil expert, policy. In this regard, Riyadh can not be interested in a sharp and prolonged drop in world oil prices. Not least because it would have a negative impact on quality of life in Saudi Arabia.[1]

Дата добавления: 2015-07-12