The Opposition Forces (Free Syrian Army)

The rebel ‘army’ comprises more than a thousand independent units, many of which call themselves battalions and brigades, but these military terms do not imply the proper organization or strength. The independent units are grouped into larger entities on the basis of ideology and nominal loyalty to one or another of the major factions of the rebellion, but their numbers and their loyalties are fluid. So individual leaders may split off to form new group, whilst rebel fighters transfer their loyalties from one group to another. With approximately 50,000 fighters nominally under its command, roughly half of the total rebel strength. The FSA has relied on a nationwide guerrilla campaign focused on weakening Assad’s forces and their infrastructure, but its activities are local and uncoordinated rather than dictated by a national strategy. After nearly three years of fighting, estimates of Syrian territory controlled by all anti-Assad forces, including that controlled by Kurdish militias, range from 60 to 70 percent, although less than 50 percent of the population is estimated to be under rebel control.

Islamic State (participates since 2014)was accused by the UN of waging a campaign of terror Syria. It has inflicted severe punishments on those who transgress or refuse to accept its rule, including hundreds of public executions. Its fighters have also carried out mass killings of rival armed groups, members of the security forces and religious minorities, and beheaded hostages.

The escalating violence and ISIL advances have had a significant humanitarian impact on Syria and its neighbours. Syria is now the world's biggest internal displacement crisis, with more than seven million people forced from their homes but remaining in the country. Meanwhile, more than 4 million people have fled the country's borders, mainly taking refuge in surrounding countries.

Capitalizing on the chaos in the region, IS has taken control of huge territories across northern and eastern Syria and now it represents the main challenge in Syrian region and all political actors realize that a political solution for Syrian crisis will be possible only after eliminating terrorism.

What began as an uprising against a government regime, inspired by the Arab Spring, the situation in Syria has burgeoned into a brutal proxy war: Iran and Russia have propped up the Alawite-led government of President Assad and gradually increased their support that has helped it make significant gains against the rebels. (Russia delivers the weapon of the Syrian army according to earlier signed contracts. The Russian instructors render assistance to the Syrian military personnel in use of the delivered equipment). The government has also enjoyed the support of Lebanon's Shia Islamist Hezbollah movement, whose fighters have provided important battlefield support since 2013.

As everybody knows the Sunni-dominated opposition has attracted support from its main backers: the US, UK, France Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Arab states.

Key issues

The main issue is that all countries interested in settling the conflict in Syria can’t establish accord between each other. Especially it concerns the US and Russia.

The first attempt of anti-terrorism efforts were taken by the US presented in form of the US-led anti-terrorist coalition in Syria founded in September 2014. Despite sanctions of the UNSC for coalition’s activity weren't received and official agreement with Damascus wasn't reached the coalition launched air strikes in September 2014 to destroy IS in Syria. As for the government support the coalition has avoided attacks that might benefit Assad's forces or intervening in battles between them and the rebels. Now the coalition provides support to Kurdish fighters seeking to defend three autonomous enclaves in the country's north from attacks by IS.

Such selective approach of the US government faced a negative reaction of some officials. For instance Russia said it was the military intervention “without the consent of the legitimate government”[6], and noticed that “any action, in the absence of the UNSC decision, it is an act of aggression and a gross violation of international law”[7].

“The rise of hardline Islamist rebels and the arrival of jihadists from across the world have led to a marked cooling of Western backing”[8]. It has caused that now the US-led coalition in Syria is criticized and estimated as not effective enough organization because the year of coalition’s activity in region has found that areas under IS control weren’t reduced but enlarged as well as increased the number of crimes committed by IS-terrorists. Bashar al-Assad also declared that coalition in Syria is counterproductive, “the terrorism extended geographically, and the number of recruits and volunteers in the terrorist organizations grew up”.

The US government considers that the only way to a solution in Syria is the political transition which keeping the state integrity as well as armed forces. The US also “stressed that there is no military solution to the overall conflict in Syria, which can only be resolved by a political transition away from Assad”[9].

Moreover addressing the UN General Assembly the US President “Barack Obama in his speech said the US was willing to work with Russia, as well as Iran, to achieve a “managed transition” to remove Assad from power”[10].

In contrast to the US Russian Federation is holding another firm position.

Russia insists on political settlement of the conflict in Syria and opposes violent change of current regime by foreign intervention. As the permanent member of UNSC Russia blocked drafts of resolutions on the Syrian problem four times. Thanks to efforts of the Russian diplomacy in August, 2013 it was succeeded to avoid foreign intervention and to reach the agreement with the government of Syria upon removal of chemical arsenals.

The Russian Government is agree with position of Syria’s president Assad that “the people should make the decision, not anyone else”[11].

On September 28, 2015 at the 70th session of the United Nations General Assembly V. Putin said “it was a huge mistake not to engage the Syrian army in the fight against Islamic State. He said the Syrian military was the only force truly fighting IS militants in the country”[12]. In his speech has also officially announced about an initiative of creation of the common body for fight against IS in Syria and Iraq. The position of Russian government is that the coalition on fight against IS has to work from the sanction of UNSC and to be approved by the Syrian government. Earlier, in August, 2015, this initiative was discussed on meetings with heads of foreign policy departments of the USA, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran, Turkey.

September 30, 2015 the Russian Airforce started air strikes on positions of IS in Syria at the request of Bashar al-Assad. Besides, Russia continues cooperation with Syria within earlier signed military contracts, and the Russian instructors render their assistance to Syrian military personnel in use of the supplied equipment.

On Russia’s initiative in Moscow two rounds of the inter-syrian negotiations took place in January and April, 2015. During an April meeting for the first time the Syrian opposition and official Damascus managed to develop and accept the joint document of political character.

Дата добавления: 2015-11-14