C) Primaries and caucuses

The rivals for a party's nomination must look forward first, not yet to the next convention, but to the processes by which the state parties will choose their delegations for the convention. At one time this was done everywhere by 'caucuses' of party activists. Some states still use this system, and there the presidential rivals look for support on a fairly narrow basis. But now more than thirty states have some form of special 'presidential primaries'. Any rival for the Democratic nomination may enter for a state's primary, at which anyone who has registered as a Democrat may vote (so too with Republicans) - though in states which do not have party registration anyone may vote in either primary, but not both. In either case, the voter is still free to vote as he or she likes at the main election in November, when many registered Democrats sometimes vote Republican and vice versa.

There are usually several candidates in a state's primary (assuming that there is a real contest there), though even serious candidates do not enter in every state. However, there is a complication. Some states allow voters to ignore all the names on the ballot, and to write in the name of someone who is not officially a candidate in that state.

A candidate who has stayed out of a primary rather than risk defeat may then have his supporters campaign for 'write-in' votes. For the eventual voting at the convention the primaries may well produce a confused situation. In general, with a state where there has been a primary, the delegates must begin by supporting the winner - though if, as the convention progresses, it seems clear that he or she has no chance of being chosen, they may switch to another candidate.

In the age of television, the presidential primaries have gained a new importance. State primaries take place one by one between February and June, sometimes several on the same day, and each one in succession is heavily reported. In 1988, most of the southern states scheduled their primaries for March 8th, in the hope that southern opinion would have an increased influence. A candidate's success in one state may encourage people to vote for him or her in the next state one or two weeks later. A 'bandwagon' effect may be developed, As the small New England state of New Hampshire holds its primaries before any other early in February, in the snow, it receives extraordinary attention for more than a year before its primaries.

The first man to exploit the potential of the primaries with real effectiveness was John F. Kennedy in 1960. Carter did the same in1976, Reagan in 1980. With all these three, good primary campaigns were useful, not only for their respective conventions, but also for the final inter-party contest.

The build-up towards the conventions and election of 1988 was interesting because it was the first for twenty years with no incumbent President in the field. With the Republicans, Reagan's Vice-President, George Bush, was the obvious front runner, and Michael Dukakis, Governor of Massachusetts, was the candidate for the Democrats.

The total expenditure by all candidates was estimated at four hundred million dollars, including some federally funded; one big item was payment for television time. One candidate had gained publicity by climbing Mount Washington in New Hampshire, at1, 850 metres the highest point in the northeast of the United States; he had also ridden a bicycle seven hundred kilometres across the plains of the midwestern state of Iowa, where the first party caucus would be held.

The caucuses in Iowa attract more attention than other state caucuses, because they are held very early, before the first primaries in New Hampshire. Also, Iowa has three times New Hampshire's population, being about 27th in size among the fifty states. Although participation is limited to party activists (as distinct from those who merely registered as Democrats or Republicans) the definition of activist is very wide in Iowa. In 1988 both Bush and Dukakis failed disastrously in the Iowa caucuses, but won their party primaries in New Hampshire.

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