Kaskelen 2014

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND SCIENCE OF

THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN

SULEYMAN DEMIREL UNIVERSITY

FACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND ADMINISTRATIVE SCIENCES

Khamzin Yerassyl

THESIS WORK

Specialty 5B020200 – «International Relations»

Kaskelen 2015

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND SCIENCE OF THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN

SULEYMAN DEMIREL UNIVERSITY

FACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND ADMINISTRATIVE SCIENCES

«Approved»

Head __________________
Department

_______________________
_______________________

THESIS WORK

Theme: «Kazakh- China Bilateral Relations in Danger: Trans- border River Issues Examined.

»

Specialty 5B020200 – «International Relations»

Submitted by: Khamsin Y.

Scientific supervisor: Dr., prof. Zhanabel Zh.

Monitoring of
Implementation __________

Kaskelen 2014

CONTENT

INTRODUCTION

1 THE HISTORY OF THE ISSUE……………………………………...

1.1 Border Problem…………………………………………………….

1.2 Water Problem……………………………………………………..

2 IMPACT ON US………………………………………………………

2.1 Irtysh- Karamay Canal……………………………………………..

2.2 Chinese Economic Development Plans…………………………..

2.2.1 Irtysh River…………………….………………………………...

2.2.2 Ili River………......…...………………………………………….

2.2.3 Zaysan Lake and Balkhash Lake…………..……………………..

3 BILATERAL CONTACTS AND EXCHANGE OF VIEW………….

3.1Chinese Perception of Problem…….......……………………..

3.2What Our Government is Doing?.................................................

CONCLUSION…………………………………………………………...

REFERENCES…………………………………………………………...

INTRODUCTION

In the second half of the XX century the increasing attention and alarm is caused by an aggravation of the problem connected with water supply in the world in general and in droughty areas which the countries of the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asıa in particular. This problem has developed as a result of the growth of discrepancy between fast increase in consumption and almost invariable water resources for a long time. Now the subject of a lack of water resources is one of the most actual and extremely important for consideration, not only from the point of economic threats and consequences, but also as the important instrument of political struggle. Now the ratio between the resources of fresh water and demand for them reached a critical minimum and, in some cases, turned into deficiency that conceals in itself the threat of social disasters and political conflicts.

In our region, much commentary is devoted to the potential for conflict over water issues in Central Asia, for the most part focusing on Uzbekistan's disputes with its two upstream neighbors, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, over the management of trans-boundary rivers. Less attention has historically been paid to the problems that exist over water management between Kazakhstan and China – largely due to the reluctance of both governments to discuss these matters in public.[0] However, largely-unspoken Kazakh-Chinese tensions over water are arguably of equal significance, both in terms of their potential environmental impact and as a source of political friction bilaterally (and, indeed, trilaterally as well, given the partial involvement of Russia). Total length of frontier of the Republic of Kazakhstan makes about 14 thousand km. From them about 600 km pass across the Caspian Sea, 7200 km fall on border with the Russian Federation, 1740 km – with the People's Republic of China, 2150 km – with the Republic of Uzbekistan, 1050 km – with the Kyrgyz Republic and 400 km – with Turkmenistan.

The first block of questions of the heavy heritage which Kazakhstan got after the collapse of the USSR were the problems connected with the Kazakhstan-Chinese border lines. The Soviet-Chinese frontier for 40 years was a subject of rigid political and military opposition, and the main reason for it was that there had never carried out any redelimitation and redemarcation from the moment of signing of the Russian-Chinese contracts in the XIX century. Two empires disappeared, there appeared new states, and the border remained not specified. But, as a result of hard work of the diplomats of the both sides this problem could be solved.

But, there is another problem of the equal importance, which hasn't had solution for decades. It is the problem of sharing of water sources, the cross-border rivers, this issues has particular significance for social- economic well-being of kazakhstan and also for the development of biletaral politico-economic relations between two biggest neighbors. And it is not only about "a problem of Black Irtysh", and about all complex of these questions. Today the suspense of these questions is a stumbling block in the relations between the states of the region, also in the solution of questions on regional integration and security.

The relevance of this thesis work is therefore in its newness and originality. Since the declare of the independence not so many scientists analyzed problem of trans-boundary rivers. In contrast there are dozens of research centers in China which study water problems. The importance of this problem increased rapidly and still without clear analysis it is very difficult to understand how the problems canbe solved. The problem is deep-rooted and Kazakhstan cannot prevent Chinese development, also Kazakhstan is too dependent because of Chinese investments and bilateral trade. In order to fully understand what are the plans of China for trans-border rivers, how much these rivera are important for both economy and ecology of the region, and what are the influences of Chinese plans on Kazakhstan, rigorous research needs to be conducted.

A number of the research centers are engaged in problems of the international cooperation of China and the countries of Central Asia: in Russia they are concentrated at Institute of the Far East by AN of the Russian Federation, MGIMO, Institute of the international economy and the international relations of AN of the Russian Federation, Institute of oriental studies of AN of the Russian Federation. In our work we relied on Voskresensky A.D. researches., Korsuna V.A., Luzyanina, Ostroukhov O. L. Of This Year, Sveshnikova A.A., Stepanova E.D., etc. Political triangle of "the China-Russia-country of Central Asia" is emphasized also by the Kazakhstan scientists. The famous Kazakhstan political scientist Hlyupin V. V. and called the work – "A geopolitical triangle: Kazakhstan-China-Russia. Past and the present of a boundary problem". In the research Hlyupin it is quite critical and comprehensively considered a boundary question, a problem of the cross-border rivers. The institute of strategic researches of Kazakhstan also conducted a number of interesting researches on the subject. On its site – www.kisi.kz are periodically published articles on various subject, in particular to relationship with China. For example, Halabuzar O. P., the chief specialist of department of public relations of KISI at the president of the Republic of Kazakhstan, carried out the content analysis of the Kazakhstan mass media for 1999-2001 on a problem of the cross-border rivers of China and Kazakhstan. It is especially valuable, when there is no opportunity to find materials of the Kazakhstan newspapers in a global network. The relation of the countries of Central Asia with China many articles in the Kazakhstan periodical press as in printing, and in electronic option on the Internet are devoted to problems. For example, articles from the "Central Asia and Caucasus" magazine, were also used by the Author. also analytical materials, articles of the largest Kazakhstan newspapers were used: "Time across Greenwich", "The Kazakhstan truth".

The aim of the work is to make detailed examination of the trans-boundary rivers problem between Kazakhstan using the publications of the researchers of different regions also official documents. In order to reach the goal the following tasks must be solved:

1. To consider the historical roots of the problem

2. Identify an importance of the most important trans-boundary rivers for Kazakhstan

3. Examine Chinese Economic Development Plans in regard to the each basin

4. Make a survey of the local people on the changes of the level of water during the last years

5. Analyze possible impacts of Chinese Constructions on the rivers on kazakhstan’s economy, ecology and social well-being.

Examine the list of bilateral negotiations on water problems and give assessment of the taken actons by both sides

In the diploma thesis the problem of trans-border rivers between the Peoples Republic of China and the the Republic of Kazakhstan is examined. The thesis consists of three parts: Introduction, Main body and Conclusion.

Main Body is divided into three chapters. First chapter is about the history of issue. It consists of two paragraphs, first describes brief history of border problems, second is about historical roots of water problems.Second Chapter analyzes Chinese economic plans and its influences on us. Descriptions of the most significant rivers and lakes, namely Irtysh, Ili, Balkhash and Zaysan, also detailed examination of Irtysh- Karamay – Urumqi Canal are given. Their importance for Kazakhstan is analyzed and possible implications are described. The main problems of the trans-boundary rivers management are identified,

Third chapter is about the measures taken by both sides to find the decision of the problem. On the first paragraph, Chinese approach to the problem is examined. On the second paragraph Kazakhstan’s approach to the problem is described. The chronicle and results of bilateral negotiations between two states are researched. And the analysis of Kazakh stan’s actions on regulating the problem is assessed.

The literature used in the research is extensive and includes scientific articles of analysts from Kazakhstan, Russia. West and as well as China. The emphasis has been put on the diversity of sources.

THE HISTORY OF THE ISSUE

1.1 Border problems

The Kazakhstan-Chinese relationship has deep historical roots. Throughout the several centuries these countries endured the periods of various political interactions.

Since the the early centuries, both countries fighted to protect its territories and also to gain new lands. Respectively, it led to the bloodshed, but there was also peaceful form of the relationships. It was trade which had the main role in the process of establishment of the peaceful relations between countries. There was a special place taken by the Great Silk way which connected Kazakhstan and Central Asia with China, globally, Europe and Asia.

The present stage of the Kazakhstan-Chinese cooperation began in January, 1992 when Kazakhstan, having declared independence, established official diplomatic relations with the Peoples Republic of China. Establishment and development of bilateral good-neighborhood v relationships between the Republic of Kazakhstan and People's Republic of China was the most important part of foreign policy of sovereign Kazakhstan in the period of the rapid economic growth and new geopolitical position of the countries of Europe and Asia.[1]

The strategic task of the Kazakhstan's government in the establishment of diplomatic relations with People's Republic of China consisted of providing such a character of relationships which would facilitate the solution of a two-uniform task: provision of the national security of Kazakhstan and strengthening of its independence. Geopolitical conditions in which Kazakhstan was, didn't have any other alternative to ensure own safety, except the support of the reasonable balance between the relations with two giant neighbors — Russia and China. And the character of the bilateral Kazakhstan-Chinese relations had to satisfy Astana and Beijing, and at the same time didn't cause the problem for Moscow. However, on the same way, the Kazakhstan-Russian relations shouldn't contradict interests of Beijing. This strategic task which has constant character, demands from the leadership of Kazakhstan high diplomatic art.

The president of Kazakhstan N. A. Nazarbayev before the collapse of the USSR started establishing the relations with China. In July, 1991 he paid visit to Beijing during which showed Chinese leaders interest of Kazakhstan in establishment of independent good-neighbourhood with China, first of all in the economic sphere, and also in maintenance of political contacts with the Chinese management. [2]

The first time problems of security were widely discussed between two countries during the visit of the President N. A. Nazarbayev to the People's Republic of China in October, 1993. The declaration on the main friendship between Kazakhstan and China Was signed. It is declared the commitment of two countries to the principles of neighborhood, respect of the sovereignty, non-aggression and non-interference into internal affairs of each other. For Kazakhstan which had already announced about its consent to become the nuclear-free power, it was important to receive consent of Beijing for provision of guarantees for non-use of nuclear weapon against. In February, 1995 the People's Republic of China gave Kazakhstan guarantees.

Security of Kazakhstan is impossible without ensuring its territorial integrity and security of its borders. The solution of this task represented very serious problem for the government of Kazakhstan. The main aim and task of the government of Kazakhstan was elimination of controversial territorial issues between two countries.

The origins of the border line between China and Kazakhstan date from the mid-19th century, when the Russian empire established its control over the Lake Zaysan region. The established border between the Russian Empire and the Qing Empire, was not too different from today's Sino-Kazakh border.It was established on the the Convention of Peking of 1860; The actual border line pursuant to the convention was drawn by the Protocol of Chuguchak (1864), leaving Lake Zaysan on the Russian side. [3] The Qing Empire's military presence in the Irtysh basin crumbled during the Dungan revolt (1862–77). After the fall of the rebellion and the reconquest of Xinjiang by Zuo Zongtang, the border between the Russian and the Qing empires in the Irtysh basin was further slightly readjusted, in Russia's favor, by the Treaty of Saint Petersburg (1881).

After the Xinhai Revolution and the Chinese Civil War in China and the October Revolution and the Russian Civil War in Russia, the Sino-Russian border became the PRC-USSR border. However, the Chinese and Soviet authorities were not always in agreement where the border was, which led, in particular to a border conflict in the east of lake Zhalanashkol in August 1969.

After Kazakhstan became an independent country, it negotiated a border treaty with China, which was signed in Almaty on April 26, 1994, and ratified by the Kazakh president on June 15, 1995. According to the treaty, a narrow strip of hills east of Zhalanashkol which the USSR and China had contested in 1969 have become recognized as part of China.[4]

In April 1994, Li Peng, Premier of the State Council, officially visited Almaty, during the visit was signed the agreement between Kazakhstan and China on the demarcation of the Kazakh-Chinese border. In the agreement the arranged concerning all border lines has been achieved, except for two areas — the Sarychildy river and the Chagan-Obo pass.

Kazakhstan became the first country from the neighbors of China with which Beijing signed the document on the border issues. The agreement established 70 key border points. Uncoordinated were only two sites of border: one is located on the mountains Saur and Tarbagatay (between the 15-16th points), and the second — on Mountains Ala Tau (between the 48-49th points). [5]

In summer of 1998 the new contract on passing of border was signed. Here are the point of view on this question of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of RK K. Tokayev: "... Disputable sites on the Soviet-Chinese border existed, and there were a lot of such points.[6]

For the first time, The term "disputable sites" was introduced by the Premier of PRC State Council Zhou Enlayem during the negotiations with A. Kosygin at the Beijing airport in 1969. After 10 years of discussions, the Soviet Union recognized existence of sites on then border concerning which both parties kept mutual claims. Kazakhstan as the assignee of the USSR, neither legally, nor politically can't claim that "disputable" — it means ours.

Especially discussions on "disputable" sites showed that the subject for dispute, in essence, is absent. That according to historical documents belongs to Kazakhstan, remained within our territory. The border passes across the former line where it was always"

The two countries' border protection authorities carry out regular meetings, and on occasions even joint border patrols.

The border issue has possessed the main priority for both countries.. In May 2002, was signed the Protocol on the demarcation of the state border completed legal border registration between two countries. According to the Protocol and applied documents, total length of the Sino-Kazakh border is 1782 km, 1,215 km are land borders and 566 km — water. The boundary line is marked by 599 frontier marks. All boundary rivers between China and Kazakhstan are navigable.[6]

After the fall of the Mongolian dynasty in the second half of the XIV century and untill the second half of the XVII century, i.e. within nearly 300 years, China had no general borders with the Kazakh khanates, and also with other possession in the territory of modern Kazakhstan. Out of sight of China there was also important event in political life of Kazakhs - formation of the Kazakh khanate- with the center in Semirechye and long process of formation of its territory and borders. Between the Kazakh khanate and the Chinese Empire there was a Dzhungar khanate (1635-1757) blocking access from China to Kazakhstan and not allowing establishment of communications between them. Only after establishment of domination of a Manchurian Qing dynasty in China and its conquer of Dzhungar and Yarkend khanates in 1757, the border of the Chinese state expanded to territories of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. At the same time with the the Qin empire the Russian Empire started getting into Central Asia from the West, the North and the East. As a result of counter expansion of two powers and the establishment of a number of contracts between them. by the end of the XIX century, redrawing of the political map of Central Asia came to the end. However the formation of the Russian-Chinese border on "the western site" didn't end. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan - directly border with Chinese state, more precisely, with its Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. Having united with the Russian Federation, they at the initiative of China reconsidered the southern borders and signed new contracts.

Thus, the history of formation of the Kazakh-Chinese border goes back to the middle of the XVIII century and comes to the end at the end of the XX century in our eyes. A chronological framework of this difficult process makes two and a half centuries.

The process of establishment of the bilateral relations between the states, being norm of the international practice and the result of certain political processes, not simply attracts attention of the world community, but also sufficiently influences the development of the political relations in the world community.

Now geopolitical position of both countries deserves special attention both from political scientists, and from other branches of knowledge. If to consider the advantages of Kazakhstan's geopolitical situation, it is possible to highlight the following: extensiveness of the territory, a convenient situation in the center of the continent on a joint of three civilizations, rich natural resources, internal political stability and the tolerance, fast rates of economic, legal, political and cultural development, etc.

Geopolitical position of China also deserves special attention: extensiveness of the territory, big human resources, an access to the open sea and, therefore, advanced transport communications, the rapid economic growth, the developed infrastructure, high-growth military and industrial spheres of economy, a widespread network of export deliveries of goods to many countries of the world etc.

Of course, both countries have striking differences in many aspects of activity: whether it is historical development or cultural heritage, but in general it doesn't prevent to build them the good-neighborhood based on the principles of mutual aid, respect and the confidential relation to each other.

2.2 Water Problems

Having resolved an issue with the "disputed" territories, Kazakhstan faced a new problem - water. For the Republic of Kazakhstan use of water resources of the cross-border rivers is special and rather serious subject. According to the experts, Kazakhstan is one and the countries of the Euroasian continent which substantially has deficiency of water resources. About a half of a surface water of the republic (44,9 cube of km.) arrives from the territory of the neighbour states. For the last 15 years the tendency of reduction of natural resources of a surface water of Kazakhstan is observed. Thus and the total amount of reduction of an annual drain, about 90% make reduction of a drain and neighboring states. The People's Republic of China, in turn, also has deficiency of water resources and needs their escalating volumes for ensuring requirements of the industry, agriculture and supply of the growing cities. In this context the question of settlement of the water relations of Kazakhstan and China has strategic appointment for both states.

In general, the problem of use of water resources of the cross-border rivers for China and Kazakhstan isn't new. It in emerged in 70-80th years during the time of the Soviet Union. During this period the agreement with the People's Republic of China was reached upon development of the interstate Agreement regulating questions of sharing and protection of the cross-border rivers. However owing to various approaches of the parties to this problem, a final decision of a question wasn't reached. From the taking its independence, Kazakhstan has been considering a solution of the problem of the cross-border rivers as one their priority tasks.

Across the territory Kazakhstan and China 23 cross-border rivers flow. Now the 79 problem moments of the bilateral Kazakhstan-Chinese relations in respect of sharing water resources are the questions of increase of the water intake from the cross-border rivers Ili and Irtysh in the territory of the People's Republic of China. The question is about the use of water of the cross-border rivers, Irtysh and Ili. This problem especially became aggravated in the fall of 1998 when the authorities of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR) of the People's Republic of China started the accelerated construction of the channel Black Irtysh - Karamay which is intended to branch the part of waters of an upper course of Irtysh to the region of an oil field Karamay near Urumqi. As the Chinese party declared, it intends for the purpose of providing with water the area testing constant shortage of water, it is planned annually to take away more than 450 million cubic meters of water from Irtysh, and over time to increase this number to 1,5 billion cubic meters. Water is also supposed to be taken from the river Ili. Such a statement disturbed Kazakhstan. According to the experts, realization of People's Republic of China 's plans will lead to violation of the developed mode of water supply and will strongly strike on the industry and agriculture of the northeast and central regions of RK. But the most essential that the ecological situation in a zone of Lake Balkhash and Zaisan that is capable to repeat Aral's tragedy here.[7]

Xinjiang, where the two rivers rise, is undergoing rapid economic growth (currently around 12% per annum) as part of a wider strategy of developing western China pursued by Beijing over the last decade. Under this strategy, the Chinese authorities have invested heavily in expanding the region’s industrial base and infrastructure, and also in encouraging the expansion of its population (largely as a result of an influx of Han Chinese from elsewhere in the country, thus diluting the potentially sensitive presence of the region’s minority groups, most notably the restive native community of Uighurs, a Muslim nation closely related to the Central Asian peoples). Xinjiang’s population is currently estimated at around 22 million, up from only 16 million as recently as the mid-1990s.

Xinjiang’s rapid expansion has inevitably generated significant pressure on water demand in what is naturally one of one of China’s driest regions. Consequently, over the last decade China has begun systematically to draw increasing volumes of water from the sections of the Ili and Irtysh rivers located on its territory. [8] The government of the People's Republic of China began implementation of the large-scale project on development of the western regions since the end of the 90th of the beginning of the 2000th. Strategy of "Big development of the West" includes plans for an intensification of use of water resources, first of all, in the territory of SUAR People's Republic of China. In particular, concerning the Irtysh River the Chinese authorities developed so-called "project 635". In compliance with it, since the end of the 90th on the river large-scale construction works have developed. Construction of the drainage Irtysh-Karamay channel was one of main goals of the project. The channel was put in operation in August, 2000, its width made 22 m, and the extent of 300 km. [8]

At present, it’s estimated that China diverts up to 30% of the Irtysh’s headwaters to this internal canal, a figure predicted to rise to 40% by 2020 [9]

IMPACT ON US

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