Assessment of the investment climate of in Russia and its regions

In assessing the investment climate in Russia is first necessary to analyze the main socio-economic indicators, natural resource potential.

In the years 2006 - 2008 there was positive dynamics of GDP, GDP per capita, as well as the rate of investment in fixed assets, which indicates that the favorable development of the country's economy. In 2009, a sharp drop in these indicators due to the crisis in the Russian economy. Moreover, the rate of decline in investment in fixed assets exceeds the rate of decline in GDP. As a consequence, falls and has already begun to increase the share of investment in fixed assets. This indicates a worsening investment climate in Russia (Table 3).

Table 3 - Dynamics of the main economic indicators in the Russian Federation in 2006-2009

Indicator / Year				Trend		Trend		Trend
Total GDP, bln.			123,10%		125,84%	39016,1	93,64%
GDP per capita, Rub.			123,40%		125,98%		93,67%
Gross capital formation, bil.	5748,8	8031,7	121%	10642,5	111,10%	7863,2	73,88%
Investment in fixed capital, mln.			141,99%		130,50%		86,02%
The share of investment in fixed capital in GDP	17,58%	20,28%	115,37%	21,04%	103,70%	19,33%	91,87%
Depreciation of fixed assets,%	45,4%	45,5%	100,2%	46,3%	101,78%	49%	105,40%

Analysis of the level of industrial production shows that since January 2008, the economy experienced an industrial decline, and during each of his three months, four quarters of 2008 were recorded record, never been to Russia over the last two decades were not recorded monthly growth of industrial decline. The mean monthly rate of decline of production reached 5.4%, quarter - more than 15%, which annualized gave breathtaking decline in production by 48%. The slowing decline occurred in January - February of 2009, termination - in March. From pre-crisis peak of production in December 2007 to the bottom of the recession in February 2009, the cumulative reduction in industrial production amounted to 23,4%. Similar rates of production volume last fall during 1994.

Trends in industrial production indices are shown in Figure 2.

Figure 1 - Indices of industrial production in 2008 – 2010

In these conditions, of course, it is difficult to talk about the investment attractiveness of Russia's economy, but at the same time it is in this situation, improving the investment climate is essential.

An important factor of investment attractiveness is the level of inflation. In Russia, its value remains very high. According to the Federal State Statistics Service, in 2008 consumer prices increased by 13,3% in 2009, this figure decreased and amounted to 8,8%. The growth of the producer price index of manufactured goods also slowed, and in 2008 there is even seen its drop. Index of freight tariffs, on the contrary increased. In general, price growth in Russia has slowed sharply in response to the crisis, in particular the decline in demand for goods in an economic downturn. Nevertheless, even this factor has led to a strengthening of investment activity (Table 4).

Table 4 - Major price indices in 2006-2009

Indicator / Year
Consumer price index	109%	111,9%	113,3%	108,8%
Producer price index of manufactured goods	110,4%	125,1%	93%	113,9%
Index of freight tariffs	115,8%	106,8%	132,3%	117,4%

In implementing the investment is often used borrowed funds. In this regard, we examined the change in the average interest rate on loans in 2006 - 2009 years. Reported an increase of its values​​: from 10.4% in 2006 to 15,3% in 2009. However, in the 3 quarter of 2009, it is observed a slight decrease. High values ​​of the rates on loans due to high risk of credit institutions in terms of instability to the housekeeper, says reducing the availability of credit as a source of investment resources, and as a consequence of the deterioration of the investment attractiveness of Russia's economy (Table 5).

Table 5 - Average interest rate on loans in 2006 – 2009

Average interest rate on loans,%
	10,4
	12,2
1q	10,1
2q	11,2
3q
4q	14,9
	15,3
1q	16,6
2q	15,8
3q	14,9
4q	13,9

The negative trend in the social sphere. Thus, the number of unemployed by 2007 is reduced, in 2008, begins to grow and in 2009 was 6,335 thousand, which exceeds 4% of the total population (Table 6).

Table 6 - Changes in the number of unemployed in 2006 - 2007

Indicator / Year			Trend		Trend		Trend
Population, million	142,2		99,86%	141,9	99,93%	141,9	100,00%
The number of unemployed, th			84,94%		124,56%		119,78%
The rate of unemployment,%	3,52%	2,99%		3,73%		4,46%

At the February 2010 unemployment rate was 8.6%. This situation is also linked to the crisis in the economy, job losses, increasing the number of unprofitable enterprises. These facts indicate a deterioration of social stability in the country, reducing investment and, accordingly, to reduce the investment attractiveness of the Russian economy.

Analyzing the crime rate, it should be noted that the total number of recorded crimes has decreased, however, an increase in crimes related to bribery, which negatively affects the investment climate.

In the structure of investment in fixed assets by economic activities, the largest part of the sphere of transport and communications (20%), real estate, renting the provision of services (17%) as well as production of fuel-energy minerals (about 14%)

The main inflow of foreign investment in Russia has been from such countries as Cyprus, France, Germany, Netherlands, France.

In modern conditions characteristic of the Russian economy is regional imbalance in the volume of investments. The economic situation in Russia depends on economic subjects of the federation, i.e. the economy at different levels, so we examined the state of the investment climate in Russian regions.

Analysis of the GRP, conducted among federal districts, shows that the largest share of the total GRP for the subjects of the Russian Federation is the Central federal district (36,5%) - the positive dynamics, the smallest - Far Eastern Federal District (4.6%)

Analysis of the specific capital investments to the gross regional product (GRP) for 2004-2007. shows that in 2007 the largest share of investments in fixed assets is observed in the Southern Federal authority - 32%, the lowest - in the Central federal district - 17,3%. Overall, across all regions, the figure is 23.8%. Since the state aims to bring the share of investment to GDP for the country to 30%, we can conclude that in the Southern Federal District and the North-West Federal District favorable investment climate and enhancing the investment activity. The largest share of investments is concentrated in the sectors of manufacturing and mining. Overall, across all regions tended to increase the share of fixed investment to GRP (Table 7).

Table 7 - The ratio of fixed investment to gross regional product in 2004 – 2007

Region / Year
RF	20,50%	20,00%	21,00%	23,80%
CFA	16,70%	15,40%	15,40%	17,30%
Northwestern Federal District	24,40%	26,90%	29,60%	29,90%
South Federal District	25,40%	26,30%	27,40%	32,00%
Volga Federal District	20,30%	21,80%	22,30%	26,20%
Ural Federal District	23,90%	19,20%	21,50%	26,00%
Siberian Federal District	15,70%	17,70%	19,80%	23,40%
Far East Federal District	31,90%	33,40%	33,10%	33,80%

Among the regions largest share of foreign investment in SSA is observed at the Far Eastern Federal District (9.2%), as well as the Northwestern Federal District, ie, they have the most favorable investment climate. The least attractive to foreign investors, the Ural and Southern Federal District - 1,9% and 2,3% respectively.

Thus, at present in the Russian regions observed heterogeneity of investment development. In absolute figures of the most active investment activity is typical for the Central Federal District, as well as the Ural and Volga districts. The relative performance lead Northwestern and Southern Federal District, since the value of the GRP in them is insignificant. The share of foreign investment in the region remains low, the most attractive to foreign investors is the Far East and North-Western federal district.

Evaluation of the investment potential includes an assessment of natural resource potential of the country. In this connection it should be noted that Russia is extremely rich in natural resources and is ranked the world's proven reserves of natural gas, iron ore, coal, asbestos, zinc and other minerals.

Дата добавления: 2015-11-14